# 10 First Strategy in Jeopardy

Omy, another necessary digression before we get to strategy. On Sunday (Feb 24) Ralph Nader announced his run for president…again. My first reaction was ‘That freakin’ @$$#0!=’ but I don’t think I said “freakin.’” Then I did a little research, and realized that in 2000 he received 2.7% of the popular vote, and may indeed have caused Florida to go to dubya rather than to Gore (though I still can’t shake my own conviction that Brother Jeb had at least as much to do with that result). Okay, any voter can make a mistake once, and by 2004 most of his 2000 supporters realized that, contrary to what Nader had been saying, there IS a difference between the two parties. Hence, in 2004, Nader got 0.3% of the popular vote, and was not a factor. That’s LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF ONE PERCENT of the vote. This year, I believe, he won’t qualify for federal funding. I believe the American people, fooled once but not a second time, will dismiss his candidacy and he will, again, be a non-factor. Is he selfish, self-centered, arrogant, an egotist, and all those other negative things? Perhaps. Or perhaps he’s just lost his mind and doesn’t realize that he is at least in part responsible (from his run in 2000 that may have contributed to dubya’s becoming president) for the deaths of more than 4,000 American and Coalition service-men and -women, and countless tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians. Or maybe he did realize it, and that caused him to lose his mind.

An alternative view is that Nader isn’t senile, and that he is trying to influence the Democratic platform come August, in what he hopes will be the Democrats’ attempt to get him out of the race by adopting his views on the various issues. That would make sense, except that the Democrats already share many of his views. Further, he needs to remember that the Democratic Senate and House the last year-plus were not veto-proof, and so they had to accommodate dubya to some extent if ANYthing were to get accomplished.

In either case, Nader’s not going to make it to the finish line this year. Remember: you saw it here first. If I’m wrong…you don’t remember where you saw it.

And now, what this post was supposed to be about, BR (Before Ralph):

In one area in particular my first strategy—picking a vice presidential candidate who will balance the ticket by being a centrist from a red state that he can move to the blue—may not work out as I hope, despite the strong potential VP candidates for the Democratic party. Clearly, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Sherrod Brown, Bill Richardson, and possibly others, could provide a great advantage in the national election. Strickland, Nelson and Brown in particular could potentially bring a large number of electoral votes into the Democratic column if they helped to carry their home states. Any of these potential VP candidates for the Democrats will provide more talent than anyone I can think of as a VP candidate for the Republicans.

But the Republicans have the advantage in scheduling. The Democrats are convening in Denver to nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidates from August 25 to 28, and the Republicans have scheduled their convention in the twin cities of Minneapolist/St. Paul immediately after, from September 1 to 4.

In post #8, I indicated that Minnesota, while nominally a blue state, is pretty closely contested between the Democrats and the Republicans. I don’t know if holding their convention there will actually help the Republicans. I am surprised, however, they’re holding it on the Labor Day weekend. Of course, the nominations and acceptance speeches will take place after Labor Day, so they may not lose much audience.

And maybe the Republicans don’t want a large audience for the discussion of their national platform, which will likely be strongly right-wing: anti-Choice, pro-Finish-the-Job-in-Iraq, and an echoing call to balance the budget (echoing since it will be so hollow). Oh, and maybe some form of providing vouchers, chits, or some other means of allowing people to send their children to private sectarian schools without having to pay much or anything. dubya sneaked this last item into his State of the Union speech last month (seriously!), somewhere between "Chocolate-for-Everyone" and "Tax-Breaks-for-the-Rich-Trickle-Down-to-Soak-the-rest-of-You-Slobs" (okay, so I made up those last two; but dubya would have put them in had he thought of them).

With their convention coming after the Democrats meet, the Republicans have a strategic advantage. If, for example, the Democrats were to nominate Senator Bill Nelson of Florida for VP—both because he’s qualified AND because he may bring Florida into the Democratic column in November—the Republicans could counter by nominating Charlie Crist, the 52 year old governor of Florida, or Mel Martinez, the other senator from Florida. Martinez, elected in November 2005, is much newer to the national scene than is Senator Nelson, and is much less qualified, but he is Hispanic, and he might make major inroads in the Hispanic vote nationally. A Martinez VP nomination could help swing Florida and other states with large Hispanic populations into the Republican camp. Let’s remember that Hispanics are now the largest minority in the country. That could be a lot of votes going red instead of blue in November. And please let’s not claim there’s no such thing as block voting, not when something like 70% to 80% of the African Americans voting in the later Democratic primaries were voting for BO. I have no problem with that size vote, but that looks pretty darn block size to me. Of course, in my view there's a significant difference in qualifications between Obama and Martinez, since I'm far more partial to the former as a candidate than I am to the latter.

Another possibility, with the Republican convention already in the Twin Cities, is that Senator McCain could choose Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, in order to make inroads into what had been a blue state (though weakly so) for the Democrats. I’m sure there are other possibilities for the Republicans, but frankly…I don’t care.

If his advisors are thinking ahead, John McCain will not announce his VP candidate until just before or early in the Republican convention; that is, AFTER the Democratic convention. That way, the Republicans can see whom the Democrats nominate for VP, and then adjust their own choice accordingly.

Your thoughts and comments are always welcome. Next time: Strategies Two and Three

triton