Yes, yes, I know. The Democrats don't even have a presumptive presidential candidate yet, and neither party has anything more specific for Vice President than a list of several hundred potential candidates.
Yet we're looking at triton's first set of Electoral Vote projections! Here's why:
(1) they provide a baseline against which to measure subsequent movement of states from one party to the other and to or from tossup status;
(2) the list isn't final: it's in flux, and will remain so probably up until November 4; unimagined events between now and then could change the entire situation, including world events, national events, and really dumb comments by the candidates or their staff members; and
3) I find it amazing how well the Democrats actually seem to be doing right now, despite the internecine war raging between BO and HRC (though honestly I think HRC is doing more of the waging, because she and her advisors recognize that she has lost momentum and is losing the nomination battle).
Here's the abbreviation key for today's and subsequent electoral vote lists:
"D" and "R" are the two major parties;
"T" is "TossUp": please note that I avoided the humorously and connotatively negative abbreviation "TU" which implies a terminal condition: as easy as it is to view the Democrats as currently committing suicide, they actually have not yet done so, at least based on my projections below.
"?" does not mean, Who the hell knows? Instead, it means "perhaps leaning toward...." Or, I suppose, it could mean, Who the hell knows?
One strategic note: if the list below has any validity, then the Democrats need to concentrate on winning Connecticut (7 votes), Minnesota (10 votes), and Ohio (20 votes). Those 37 electoral votes, listed below as Tossups, would give the Democratic candidate 277 electoral votes, just over the 270 needed for election. In fact, he/she wouldn't even need to court Lieberman, and could still end up with the 270 required. But Minnesota will be a problem if its governor, Tim Pawlenty, is the Republican VP candidate. And Ohio is always a problem: nominating Ted Strickland (Governor) or Sherrod Brown (Senator) might help, but they'd still need to carry Minnesota. In any case, it's shaping up to be another really close election. So far.
The summary on this April 14 (caveat: always subject to change):
Democratic or leaning toward Democratic: 240
Republican or leaning toward Republican: 237
Currently a tossup: 61
And now, the first list:
State # of Electoral Current Projection
Votes (538 total) (as of 4/14/08)
Alabama 9 R
Alaska 3 R
Arizona 10 R
Arkansas 6 T (R?)
California 55 D
Colorado 9 T
Connecticut 7 T (because of Lieberman)
Delaware 3 D
DC 3 D
Florida 27 R (T? depending on D's VP)
Georgia 15 R
Hawaii 4 D
Idaho 4 R
Illinois 21 D
Indiana 11 R
Iowa 7 T
Kansas 6 R
Kentucky 8 R
Louisiana 9 R
Maine 4 D
Maryland 10 D
Massachusetts 12 D
Michigan 17 T (D?)
Minnesota 10 T (depending on the R’s VP)
Mississippi 6 R
Missouri 11 T(R?)
Montana 3 T
Nebraska 5 R
Nevada 5 T
New Hampshire 4 D
New Jersey 15 D
New Mexico 5 T (D?) (depending on what Bill Richardson does)
New York 31 D
North Carolina 15 R
North Dakota 3 R
Ohio 20 T (depending on the D’s VP)
Oklahoma 7 R
Oregon 7 D
Pennsylvania 21 D (T?)
Rhode Island 4 D
South Carolina 8 R
South Dakota 3 R
Tennessee 11 R
Texas 34 R
Utah 5 R
Vermont 3 D
Virginia 13 R (T? depending on the D’s VP)
Washington 11 D
West Virginia 5 T (R?)
Wisconsin 10 D
Wyoming 3 R
175 R
62 T leaning toward R or R leaning toward T
- - -
237
197 D
43 T leaning toward D or D leaning toward T
- - -
240
61 T very much up for grabs
--triton--
Monday, April 14, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
#16 This time, it's all about JMcC, not BO or HRC
I received the following email from a friend, who sent it from MoveOn.org, a site I have to admit I've never visited. However, I think the information is important enough to post on this blog, even though it isn't directly about the potential Democratic nominees. As always I welcome your comments, either on the blog or by private email. Next time I'll return to discussing the Dems. Here's her email:
"There are some things I never seem to hear about John McCain from the media. I thought you should see this list from MoveOn.org. Please check it out and pass it on! Below you will see the sources listed, which we never see in fwd. political e-mails. This election is an important one, so join with me to resolve to only send only legitimate and substantiated facts....
"10 things you should know about John McCain (but probably don't):
1. John McCain voted against establishing a national holiday in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Now he says his position has "evolved," yet he's continued to oppose key civil rights laws.
2. According to Bloomberg News, McCain is more hawkish than Bush on Iraq, Russia and China. Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan says McCain "will make Cheney look like Gandhi."
3. His reputation is built on his opposition to torture, but McCain voted against a bill to ban waterboarding, and then applauded President Bush for vetoing that ban.
4. McCain opposes a woman's right to choose. He said, "I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned."
5. The Children's Defense Fund rated McCain as the worst senator in Congress for children. He voted against the children's health care bill last year, then defended Bush's veto of the bill.
6. He's one of the richest people in a Senate filled with millionaires. The Associated Press reports he and his wife own at least eight homes! Yet McCain says the solution to the housing crisis is for people facing foreclosure to get a "second job" and skip their vacations.
7. Many of McCain's fellow Republican senators say he's too reckless to be commander in chief. One Republican senator said: "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He's erratic. He's hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."
7. McCain talks a lot about taking on special interests, but his campaign manager and top advisers are actually lobbyists. The government watchdog group Public Citizen says McCain has 59 lobbyists raising money for his campaign, more than any of the other presidential candidates.
8. McCain has sought closer ties to the extreme religious right in recent years. The pastor McCain calls his "spiritual guide," Rod Parsley, believes America's founding mission is to destroy Islam, which he calls a "false religion." McCain sought the political support of right-wing preacher John Hagee, who believes Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment for gay rights and called the Catholic Church "the Antichrist" and a "false cult."
9. He positions himself as pro-environment, but he scored a 0—yes, zero—from the League of Conservation Voters last year.
10. John McCain is not who the Washington press corps makes him out to be. So forward this email to your personal network! Thanks!"
"SOURCES:
1. "The Complicated History of John McCain and MLK Day," ABC News, April 3, 2008 http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/the-complicated.html
"McCain Facts," ColorOfChange.org, April 4, 2008 http://colorofchange.org/mccain_facts/
2. "McCain More Hawkish Than Bush on Russia, China, Iraq," Bloomberg News, March 12, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aF28rSCtk0ZM&refer=us
"Buchanan: John McCain 'Will Make Cheney Look Like Gandhi,'" ThinkProgress, February 6, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/06/buchanan-gandhi-mccain/
3. "McCain Sides With Bush On Torture Again, Supports Veto Of Anti-Waterboarding Bill," ThinkProgress, February 20, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/20/mccain-torture-veto/
4. "McCain says Roe v. Wade should be overturned," MSNBC, February 18, 2007 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17222147/
5. "2007 Children's Defense Fund Action Council® Nonpartisan Congressional Scorecard," February 2008 http://www.childrensdefense.org/site/PageServer?pagename=act_learn_scorecard2007
"McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion," CNN, October 3, 2007 http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/03/mccain.interview/
6. "Beer Executive Could Be Next First Lady," Associated Press, April 3, 2008 http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-S1sWHm0tchtdMP5LcLywg5ZtMgD8VQ86M80
"McCain Says Bank Bailout Should End `Systemic Risk,'" Bloomberg News, March 25, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHMiDVYaXZFM&refer=home
7. "Will McCain's Temper Be a Liability?," Associated Press, February 16, 2008 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4301022
"Famed McCain temper is tamed," Boston Globe, January 27, 2008 http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/27/famed_mccain_temper_is_tamed/
8. "Black Claims McCain's Campaign Is Above Lobbyist Influence: 'I Don't Know What The Criticism Is,'" ThinkProgress, April 2, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/02/mccain-black-lobbyist/
"McCain's Lobbyist Friends Rally 'Round Their Man," ABC News, January 29, 2008 http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4210251
9. "McCain's Spiritual Guide: Destroy Islam," Mother Jones Magazine, March 12, 2008 http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3519
"Will McCain Specifically 'Repudiate' Hagee's Anti-Gay Comments?," ThinkProgress, March 12, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/03/12/mccain-hagee-anti-gay/"McCain 'Very Honored' By Support Of Pastor Preaching 'End-Time Confrontation With Iran,'" ThinkProgress, February 28, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/28/hagee-mccain-endorsement/
10. "John McCain Gets a Zero Rating for His Environmental Record," Sierra Club, February 28, 2008 http://www.alternet.org/blogs/environment/77913/"
"There are some things I never seem to hear about John McCain from the media. I thought you should see this list from MoveOn.org. Please check it out and pass it on! Below you will see the sources listed, which we never see in fwd. political e-mails. This election is an important one, so join with me to resolve to only send only legitimate and substantiated facts....
"10 things you should know about John McCain (but probably don't):
1. John McCain voted against establishing a national holiday in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Now he says his position has "evolved," yet he's continued to oppose key civil rights laws.
2. According to Bloomberg News, McCain is more hawkish than Bush on Iraq, Russia and China. Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan says McCain "will make Cheney look like Gandhi."
3. His reputation is built on his opposition to torture, but McCain voted against a bill to ban waterboarding, and then applauded President Bush for vetoing that ban.
4. McCain opposes a woman's right to choose. He said, "I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned."
5. The Children's Defense Fund rated McCain as the worst senator in Congress for children. He voted against the children's health care bill last year, then defended Bush's veto of the bill.
6. He's one of the richest people in a Senate filled with millionaires. The Associated Press reports he and his wife own at least eight homes! Yet McCain says the solution to the housing crisis is for people facing foreclosure to get a "second job" and skip their vacations.
7. Many of McCain's fellow Republican senators say he's too reckless to be commander in chief. One Republican senator said: "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He's erratic. He's hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."
7. McCain talks a lot about taking on special interests, but his campaign manager and top advisers are actually lobbyists. The government watchdog group Public Citizen says McCain has 59 lobbyists raising money for his campaign, more than any of the other presidential candidates.
8. McCain has sought closer ties to the extreme religious right in recent years. The pastor McCain calls his "spiritual guide," Rod Parsley, believes America's founding mission is to destroy Islam, which he calls a "false religion." McCain sought the political support of right-wing preacher John Hagee, who believes Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment for gay rights and called the Catholic Church "the Antichrist" and a "false cult."
9. He positions himself as pro-environment, but he scored a 0—yes, zero—from the League of Conservation Voters last year.
10. John McCain is not who the Washington press corps makes him out to be. So forward this email to your personal network! Thanks!"
"SOURCES:
1. "The Complicated History of John McCain and MLK Day," ABC News, April 3, 2008 http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/the-complicated.html
"McCain Facts," ColorOfChange.org, April 4, 2008 http://colorofchange.org/mccain_facts/
2. "McCain More Hawkish Than Bush on Russia, China, Iraq," Bloomberg News, March 12, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aF28rSCtk0ZM&refer=us
"Buchanan: John McCain 'Will Make Cheney Look Like Gandhi,'" ThinkProgress, February 6, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/06/buchanan-gandhi-mccain/
3. "McCain Sides With Bush On Torture Again, Supports Veto Of Anti-Waterboarding Bill," ThinkProgress, February 20, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/20/mccain-torture-veto/
4. "McCain says Roe v. Wade should be overturned," MSNBC, February 18, 2007 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17222147/
5. "2007 Children's Defense Fund Action Council® Nonpartisan Congressional Scorecard," February 2008 http://www.childrensdefense.org/site/PageServer?pagename=act_learn_scorecard2007
"McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion," CNN, October 3, 2007 http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/03/mccain.interview/
6. "Beer Executive Could Be Next First Lady," Associated Press, April 3, 2008 http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-S1sWHm0tchtdMP5LcLywg5ZtMgD8VQ86M80
"McCain Says Bank Bailout Should End `Systemic Risk,'" Bloomberg News, March 25, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHMiDVYaXZFM&refer=home
7. "Will McCain's Temper Be a Liability?," Associated Press, February 16, 2008 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4301022
"Famed McCain temper is tamed," Boston Globe, January 27, 2008 http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/27/famed_mccain_temper_is_tamed/
8. "Black Claims McCain's Campaign Is Above Lobbyist Influence: 'I Don't Know What The Criticism Is,'" ThinkProgress, April 2, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/02/mccain-black-lobbyist/
"McCain's Lobbyist Friends Rally 'Round Their Man," ABC News, January 29, 2008 http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4210251
9. "McCain's Spiritual Guide: Destroy Islam," Mother Jones Magazine, March 12, 2008 http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3519
"Will McCain Specifically 'Repudiate' Hagee's Anti-Gay Comments?," ThinkProgress, March 12, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/03/12/mccain-hagee-anti-gay/"McCain 'Very Honored' By Support Of Pastor Preaching 'End-Time Confrontation With Iran,'" ThinkProgress, February 28, 2008 http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/28/hagee-mccain-endorsement/
10. "John McCain Gets a Zero Rating for His Environmental Record," Sierra Club, February 28, 2008 http://www.alternet.org/blogs/environment/77913/"
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
#15 "All Is Fluid"
The stock market is way up so far today (that can change in an instant, or a week, or...), and the Utilities average is particularly strong. If this continues, we won't have a market meltdown, and the Democrats can add No Market Crash to their list of otherwise-self-inflicted woes. Hillary is sounding increasingly petulant, and Obama is trying to maintain his cool in the face of some pretty nasty attacks. And what Hillary's people are doing is nothing compared to what Barack can expect, should he get the nomination, from the Karl Roves of the Republican party. In the meantime, John McCain can keep his own hands clean from direct dirt, if his handlers (and, yes, he needs handlers) succeed in positioning him.
Right now it doesn't look good for the Democrats, whose propensity for self-immolation goes back at least to the 1968 convention in Chicago. Probably further.
In addition to--or perhaps because of--the current campaigning, the press is making Hillary sound like a spoiled child and Barack look like he has things to hide, especially about his former pastor. Or maybe she is behaving badly, and maybe BO does have things to hide. I'm not enamored of either, though I started out months ago thinking Hillary would make a fine president.
As one of my former poker buddies used to say, however, "All is fluid." In poker that meant money going to one player now can just as easily and quickly shift to another and then another, and so on. In politics, McCain's increasing popularity as the alternative to either Democratic potential candidate can also change, once the Democrats actually select a candidate and IF they can heal the wounds they have self-inflicted (a big "if"). Right now it doesn't look good. But as my second favorite line from GwtW goes, "Tomorrow is another day."
My favorite line, of course, is "As God is my witness, I shall never go hungry again."
Right now it doesn't look good for the Democrats, whose propensity for self-immolation goes back at least to the 1968 convention in Chicago. Probably further.
In addition to--or perhaps because of--the current campaigning, the press is making Hillary sound like a spoiled child and Barack look like he has things to hide, especially about his former pastor. Or maybe she is behaving badly, and maybe BO does have things to hide. I'm not enamored of either, though I started out months ago thinking Hillary would make a fine president.
As one of my former poker buddies used to say, however, "All is fluid." In poker that meant money going to one player now can just as easily and quickly shift to another and then another, and so on. In politics, McCain's increasing popularity as the alternative to either Democratic potential candidate can also change, once the Democrats actually select a candidate and IF they can heal the wounds they have self-inflicted (a big "if"). Right now it doesn't look good. But as my second favorite line from GwtW goes, "Tomorrow is another day."
My favorite line, of course, is "As God is my witness, I shall never go hungry again."
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