#17 A Snapshot in Time: Early Electoral Vote Projections

Yes, yes, I know. The Democrats don't even have a presumptive presidential candidate yet, and neither party has anything more specific for Vice President than a list of several hundred potential candidates.

Yet we're looking at triton's first set of Electoral Vote projections! Here's why:
(1) they provide a baseline against which to measure subsequent movement of states from one party to the other and to or from tossup status;
(2) the list isn't final: it's in flux, and will remain so probably up until November 4; unimagined events between now and then could change the entire situation, including world events, national events, and really dumb comments by the candidates or their staff members; and
3) I find it amazing how well the Democrats actually seem to be doing right now, despite the internecine war raging between BO and HRC (though honestly I think HRC is doing more of the waging, because she and her advisors recognize that she has lost momentum and is losing the nomination battle).

Here's the abbreviation key for today's and subsequent electoral vote lists:

"D" and "R" are the two major parties;

"T" is "TossUp": please note that I avoided the humorously and connotatively negative abbreviation "TU" which implies a terminal condition: as easy as it is to view the Democrats as currently committing suicide, they actually have not yet done so, at least based on my projections below.

"?" does not mean, Who the hell knows? Instead, it means "perhaps leaning toward...." Or, I suppose, it could mean, Who the hell knows?

One strategic note: if the list below has any validity, then the Democrats need to concentrate on winning Connecticut (7 votes), Minnesota (10 votes), and Ohio (20 votes). Those 37 electoral votes, listed below as Tossups, would give the Democratic candidate 277 electoral votes, just over the 270 needed for election. In fact, he/she wouldn't even need to court Lieberman, and could still end up with the 270 required. But Minnesota will be a problem if its governor, Tim Pawlenty, is the Republican VP candidate. And Ohio is always a problem: nominating Ted Strickland (Governor) or Sherrod Brown (Senator) might help, but they'd still need to carry Minnesota. In any case, it's shaping up to be another really close election. So far.

The summary on this April 14 (caveat: always subject to change):
Democratic or leaning toward Democratic: 240
Republican or leaning toward Republican: 237
Currently a tossup: 61

And now, the first list:

State # of Electoral Current Projection
Votes (538 total) (as of 4/14/08)

Alabama 9 R
Alaska 3 R
Arizona 10 R
Arkansas 6 T (R?)
California 55 D
Colorado 9 T
Connecticut 7 T (because of Lieberman)
Delaware 3 D
DC 3 D
Florida 27 R (T? depending on D's VP)
Georgia 15 R
Hawaii 4 D
Idaho 4 R
Illinois 21 D
Indiana 11 R
Iowa 7 T
Kansas 6 R
Kentucky 8 R
Louisiana 9 R
Maine 4 D
Maryland 10 D
Massachusetts 12 D
Michigan 17 T (D?)
Minnesota 10 T (depending on the R’s VP)
Mississippi 6 R
Missouri 11 T(R?)
Montana 3 T
Nebraska 5 R
Nevada 5 T
New Hampshire 4 D
New Jersey 15 D
New Mexico 5 T (D?) (depending on what Bill Richardson does)
New York 31 D
North Carolina 15 R
North Dakota 3 R
Ohio 20 T (depending on the D’s VP)
Oklahoma 7 R
Oregon 7 D
Pennsylvania 21 D (T?)
Rhode Island 4 D
South Carolina 8 R
South Dakota 3 R
Tennessee 11 R
Texas 34 R
Utah 5 R
Vermont 3 D
Virginia 13 R (T? depending on the D’s VP)
Washington 11 D
West Virginia 5 T (R?)
Wisconsin 10 D
Wyoming 3 R

175 R
62 T leaning toward R or R leaning toward T
- - -
237

197 D
43 T leaning toward D or D leaning toward T
- - -
240

61 T very much up for grabs

--triton--