#18 Race and Age in November

Well, I knew it would happen. I just didn't know when, or how soon. But race and age are becoming explicit issues, rather than remaining quietly subliminal. In an ideal world, race certainly wouldn't matter, and age might not matter (health is more important than years), but the real world was bound to intrude eventually. It's just happening sooner rather than later.

RACE:
Based on what they were quoted as saying in exit polls for the Pennsylvania primary, some voters indicated that they are "not ready for an African-American president." Honestly, while I recognized that attitude would be held by a small number of pitiful voters, I wasn't expecting it to surface this early or to be expressed this blatantly. But there it is. If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, polls approaching election time may not be even nearly accurate, especially if voters become reticent about expressing their prejudices. We could be looking at even more inaccurate polling in 2008 than we saw in 2004 (Ohio) and 2000 (Florida).

I also have concerns about intimidation of African American voters in some states, either directly by threats or indirectly by sending them to the wrong voting stations or giving them incorrect instructions, both of which practices have occurred in the not-distant past, and not only in the south. Local officials will have to be particularly on guard against either practice, to insure that all who wish to vote get a legitimate opportunity to vote.

AGE:
An AP article today (Sunday) discussed what we already knew: that if he is elected, John McCain will be the oldest president inaugurated for a first term. Reagan was older when he began his second term. But McCain, at 72 (which he will turn in late August), actually seems older than Reagan did at either inauguration, 1981 or 1985. The article discussed the strategies that both parties could employ to emphasize or downplay his age.

Barack Obama will be 47 in early August, nearly a quarter of a century younger than John McCain, but Obama must be careful not to attack McCain's age directly: the Democrats had best not use any of the type of humor that was directed against Robert Dole twelve years ago --"Question: Which underwear does Bob Dole prefer, boxers or briefs? Answer: Depends." Instead, the Obama campaign will have to be more subtle, by emphasizing the Democrat's 21st century perspective rather than McCain's 20th century perspective. Referring to McCain's 19th century perspective would be nearly as insulting and vote-losing as the more direct underwear joke. It may need to be left to the Jon Stewarts, Jay Lenos, David Lettermans, and Conan O'Briens to refer more directly to McCain's age.

John McCain will have to deflect the age issue by humor and by his vice presidential selection. Reagan did both successfully, bringing up age in one of the 1984 debates against Walter Mondale: "I will not make age an issue in this campaign," Reagan said, setting up his audience; "I will not refer to my opponent's youth and inexperience." Everyone got the joke, and Reagan successfully removed age as an issue. Four years earlier, he had selected George H W Bush as his VP running mate; Bush was thirteen years younger, an age difference that reassured much of the American voting public.

Obama and Clinton don't have this kind of problem to contend with, though Obama may have the opposite concern: Hillary has targeted him for his "inexperience" (youthfulness?) in national politics. He has pretty convincingly turned it against her, and he and his handlers may be able to do the same if McCain's operatives attack his lack of national experience.

NOVEMBER:
I don't see any reason yet to change any of the designations I included for each state in post #17. I still see the Democrats--whether Hillary or Barack--as ahead for 240 electoral votes, and McCain ahead for 237, with 61 votes still viewed as tossups. And I still see the major tossup states to be Florida (currently leaning Republican), Pennsylvania (currently leaning Democratic), Minnesota, and Ohio. I also still believe that the Republicans would do well to nominate Gov Pawlenty of MN, and the Democrats would do really well to nominate Nelson (FL), or even better Brown or Strickland (both OH) as their VP candidates. Pennsylvania must go Democratic, but without using the VP position to get it--unless the Democrats can arrange to win Ohio without Brown or Strickland on the ticket. Then Gov Rendell might work as the VP candidate.