#25 The Three Speeches

Yes, yes, I know. This post was supposed to be about the current status of electoral votes. But that discussion will have to wait, in the light of the three speeches given this evening. The three were studies in contrast, not just because one was by the presidential candidate who locked up the Republican nomination months ago, the second by the unrepentant Democratic runner-up, and the third by the history-making Democratic candidate. No. The three are major contrasts because of the tone and the look and the implications.

John McCain did his candidacy no favors tonight. He looked old and tired, not helpful appearances in his case. The commentators had trouble letting go of the blank green screen behind him, but I think that may have been a goof by McCain's people. Perhaps computers were supposed to project for the television audience images of the imaginary supporters sitting behind him on stage, but for some reason the computers failed.

I'm kidding of course about his imaginary audience. But he didn't look good, and green is not too many people's best color. McCain can't afford too many photo-ops where he looks old and tired.

Hillary.... What can I say? It had been leaked all over the press that she wasn't going to concede tonight, and indeed she didn't. But her speech was self-aggrandizing to the point where she wrenched her arm patting herself on the back. Oh, sure, she brought into her speech the eighteen million people who voted for her, out of the thirty-five million total who had voted in the Democratic primaries. Anyone want to do THAT math -- she made it sound as if she got more votes than ALL the other Democratic candidates combined. And what was she trying to accomplish by asking all eighteen million to email her with advice on what course she should follow now. That isn't a question. She's trying to apply pressure on Obama: "I have control over these people's votes," she seemed to be saying. But toward what end: put her on the ticket? pay off her $20 million campaign debt? step down as the nominee and give it to her?

If there had been any doubt in my mind whether Obama should consider her as his running-mate, her speech tonight would have resolved that doubt: stay away from her, far far away.

Now that advice may fly in the face of everything I've said on this blog: that it's all about the math, getting to 270 electoral votes; and the VP choice is likely to be instrumental (or at least a good choice will be instrumental) in getting to that number. But it doesn't really contradict what I've written many times in the previous twenty-four posts. I don't believe people will vote for Hillary. She has not made herself likable during much of her shrillness in the campaign, and she came off petulant again this evening.

Besides, Obama doesn't need her on the ticket. He probably needs her stated support, but she and Bill have behaved so badly--and her handlers have run such a poor campaign for her--that he would do well to choose someone from a truly tossup state rather than someone with her amount of "baggage." Nasty way to talk about an ex-president, you say? Wait til dubya leaves the White House.

And, as I mentioned in the last post, she would make a fine Sec'y of Health and Human Services, in which capacity she would have a legitimate shot at creating universal health care. The promise of this cabinet post might get her on board the Obama campaign.

Barack Obama may not need much more than that from Hillary. By selecting the same venue for his speech tonight as the Republicans have chosen for their convention in early September, Obama is signaling that Minnesota is his state, even if the Republicans go with favorite-son Tim Pawlenty as their VP candidate. I have maintained that Pawlenty would be a smart choice for the Republicans, and it is, because it would put Minnesota into play. Pawlenty is the governor, and the state also elected a Republican, Norm Coleman, as one of their senators. Obama's people seem to be warning the Republicans not to try to make the state a battleground in the election.

Seventeen thousand people jammed into the arena, and fifteen thousand more watched huge monitors outside. They, and we, were rewarded. Obama's speech tonight was brilliant. It didn't quite have the charisma that Bill C's best speeches had, but it had enough charisma to get people's juices flowing. It was delivered beautifully, but just as importantly it had substance, it was far more specific than any speech I had previously heard from him, and it laid out what I hope will be his approach during the upcoming campaign.

"I honor John McCain for his outstanding service" to the country, Obama said, "even if he denies mine." That's not the exact line, but it epitomizes Obama's position that he will not attack McCain personally, but he will also not sit back and take blows to the head without retaliating more subtly. That answers those people who questioned how Obama would handle personal attacks.

More outstanding were Obama's point by point specific references: on the economy, with examples of individuals whom he's met during the primaries; on judging the candidates on their positions on substantive issues, and not on the cliched tests of religion and patriotism (and he phrased it so much better than I have just done); on a paced withdrawal from Iraq, in which the Iraqis will be increasingly responsible for their county's wellbeing, rather than McCain's "hundred years" of occupation (which has actually been taken out of context, and exaggerated); on education and the environment; and on taking pride in making the world better for all our children rather than for a few wealthy individuals.

If Barack Obama can maintain this intensity and this rhetorical power throughout the campaign, John McCain will have great difficulty winning. Hidden, even subliminal, racism may play a role in the voting totals, but Obama's ideas and style give him a strong initial advantage in the upcoming campaign.

And so, barring some other exciting intervening event, next time a look at the electoral vote possibilities at this time.

--triton--