#55 The 2008 Vital VeepStakes, and the 2012 Election

Let's be clear about this: if Obama is elected in 2008, he has a good shot at being reelected in 2012; if McCain is elected, his VP candidate has a good chance of becoming president, either during the next four years or on his own in the 2012 election. That's why the Republican choice for VP is so vital right now.

Thus, before I talk about Joe Biden, let me reiterate (for the fourth or fifth time) that Tim Pawlenty would be the best VP candidate the Republicans could choose. Not Mitt Romney (for all the reasons I've already listed), not an Ohio congressman or a Virginia congressman, but Pawlenty. Now, Pawlenty may have removed himself from consideration by his comment, "The Republicans should adopt the positive tone of Senator Barack Obama," but he would bring genuine conservative evangelical credentials to the Republican ticket. And he's younger than John McCain. But, then again, who isn't? My word, even I'M younger than John McCain!

But the odds are still that John McCain will choose someone else. I think, if I were a Republican, "someone else" would be a weaker VP nominee than Tim Pawlenty.

Speaking of weaker, I still think Obama can do better than Joe Biden. I like Biden. He has good ideas (some of them possibly his own), and a tragic and sympathetic family background. The hair implants he had years ago have taken root, and he looks the part of a Vice President. More importantly, however, he has tremendous foreign policy experience during his six terms in the senate.

Did I say SIX TERMS? How in the Blazing Saddles does a six-term senator fit in with Barack Obama's call for "change" in leadership and "change" in direction?

There's a problem with Joe Biden as the potential Democratic vice-presidential nominee. Actually, at least four problems: (1) calling for change, should Obama choose a Washington insider, a long-time feeder at the public trough? Again, Biden is smart, personable, and now seems to have gravitas and dignity. But (2) he doesn't quite know when to stop talking, and tends to say TOO much; (3) he will be 66 years old a few weeks after the election this year and, while he certainly has the qualifications to become president if that need arises, if Obama wins in 2008 Obama will run again in 2012, and Biden would likely be replaced on the ticket by a younger running mate.

There's another problem about Biden, from my point of view a big problem, that would almost certainly surface were he to be on the ticket. The Evil Karl Rove or one of his minions would bring it up: (4) the claim of plagiarism against him in 1988, and a history of stretching the truth, or at worst, just "saying the thing that is not so" (to use Jonathan Swift's Gulliverian euphemism).

See NOTE 1 at the end of this entry for the discussion of Biden's not-always-telling-the-truth, if you're interested in the details.

I think that either Biden or Richardson--both with foreign policy experience--could be pre-announced (i.e., before the election) as likely Secretary of State. Biden has previously said he wouldn't accept such a position, but he's had some time now to mull it over. Besides, if a newly-elected president comes to him and asks him to serve, it's less easy in practice to say No than it is in theory to say it.

For his VP, Obama should consider choosing a qualified candidate from a state that has not recently gone Blue in presidential elections, but could this year if a favorite son were the VP candidate.

You all remember that I think that Jim Webb (VA) or Ted Strickland (OH) would be good candidates, but both have claimed they're not interested in that position. Tim Kaine would also put Virginia in play. And Evan Bayh, whom I could not stop thinking about as a VP candidate, would help put Indiana in play. All of these good folk are qualified leaders.

We'll know soon enough. The Democratic convention begins in less than a week. In the meantime, John McCain would do well to say nothing about his VP candidate until after the Democratic convention, and perhaps use the Democrats' choice to help him decide.

-- triton --

NOTE 1 -- quoted material is from Wikipedia (not always a reliable source, but I've checked it out, and this does seem to be accurate). This is serious material against Joe Biden:

Biden ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1988, but "the campaign ended when he was accused of plagiarizing a speech by Neil Kinnock, then-leader of the British Labour Party. Though Biden had correctly credited the original author in all speeches but one, the one where he failed to make mention of the originator was caught on video. In the video Biden is filmed repeating a stump speech by Kinnock, with only minor modifications. 'Why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go a university? Why is it that my wife . . . is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? . . . Is it because they didn't work hard? My ancestors who worked in the coalmines of northeast Pennsylvania and would come after 12 hours and play football for four hours? It's because they didn't have a platform on which to stand.' After Biden withdrew from the race it was learned that he had correctly credited Kinnock on other occasions. He failed to do so, however, in the Iowa speech that was recorded and distributed to reporters (with a parallel video of Kinnock) by aides to Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominee. Dukakis fired John Sasso, his campaign manager and long-time Chief of Staff, but Biden's campaign could not recover. A speech that Biden had given to California Democrats earlier in the year contained passages from a Bobby Kennedy speech, but it was reported that Biden pollster and strategist Patrick Caddell had slipped the lines into the speech without Biden's knowledge. This however was hardly Biden's only problem. It was also revealed that he had plagiarized an article when he was in law school. As the New York Times pointed out: 'The faculty ruled that Mr. Biden would get an F in the course but would have the grade stricken when he retook it the next year. Mr. Biden eventually received a grade of 80 in the course, which, he joked today, prevented him from falling even further in his class rank. Mr. Biden, who graduated from the law school in 1968, was 76th in a class of 85. The file also included Mr. Biden's transcript from his days as an undergraduate at the University of Delaware. In his first three semesters, his grades were C's or D's, with three exceptions: two A's in physical education courses, a B in a course on Great English Writers and an F in R.O.T.C. The grades improved somewhat later but were never exceptional.' When questioned by a New Hampshire resident about his grades in law school Biden claimed falsely to have graduated in the 'top half' of his class."