#53 The Rust Belt and Romney

Today's forbes.com has the following article about the declining economy in the Rust Belt. The article implicitly coincides with my earlier point about why Mitt Romney's presence on the Republican ticket as VP won't help McCain win the presidency (by winning Michigan's electoral votes): the economy is worst in the industrial midwest, and not likely to improve in the foreseeable future.

Ironically, however, the very problems created during dubya's administration may turn out to be John McCain's salvation in the industrial midwest: the economy is SO bad that people have been moving away from the area, and hence won't be there to vote in November for change that will help their cities.

Here's Jonathan Zumbrun's article, excerpted for this post:

"Where's it worst? Ohio, according to our analysis, which racked up four of the 10 cities on our list: Youngstown, Canton, Dayton and Cleveland. The runner-up is Michigan, with two cities--Detroit and Flint--making the ranking. These, and four other metropolitan statistical areas, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, face fleeing populations, painful waves of unemployment and barely growing economies. By our measure, they've struggled the worst of any areas in the nation in the 21st century. And they face even bleaker futures...."

"Another brutal statistic all the cities share is a diminishing population. So far this decade, 115,000 people have left Cleveland, for other climes. Smaller changes in other regions can be just as painful. Nearly 30,000 people have left Youngstown, Ohio, and they aren't being replaced by either new babies or new immigrants...."

"The worst news is, of course, economic. When we looked at the most recent gross domestic product estimates for 155 metropolitan statistical areas estimated to have $10 billion or more GDP in 2005--economies about the size of Asheville, N.C., or Tallahassee, Fla.--the news was predictably terrible for the Rust Belt."

"In the fall of 2007, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its GDP estimates from 2001 to 2005. Nearly every city in the country grew during this period (New Orleans, devastated from Hurricane Katrina, was the notable exception), but the struggling cities on our list grew more sluggishly. None of them grew more than 1.9% a year, versus a nationwide average of 2.7%. Canton, Ohio, managed to grow its economy just 0.7% annually. Flint was worse still at 0.4%."

"None of these cities now face the huge declines in real estate prices seen by Phoenix, Miami or Las Vegas, where the Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows nearly 30% declines from a year ago. Detroit is off only about 15%, Cleveland only 8%. Don't call it a bright spot. Prices never went up in the first place."

-- triton --

#34 Why We Must Vote in November: Kathleen Sebelius' Dad. And Many Other Reasons

True, I don't sleep much. And true, I have just posted two entries to this blog in about two hours. But they're listed on two different dates, and they discuss two kind-of-different topics, so it's okay.

Seriously, let me tell you about Kathleen Sebelius’ dad, John J. Gilligan. Sebelius, you may remember from some of my earlier posts, is the Democratic governor of Kansas, a very Republican state, and has been mentioned as a possible Obama running mate. I think she’s great, but putting her on the ticket would not carry Kansas for the Democrats, so from that very practical point of view she shouldn’t be the VP candidate.

But this post is about her dad, John Gilligan. When I was voting in Ohio, as a graduate student at Ohio State, the governors were limited to two consecutive terms. After I left Ohio, Republican James Rhodes completed his second consecutive term, and Democrat John Gilligan was elected in November 1970. He was a very fine governor of Ohio from January 1971 to January 1975. When he came up for reelection in November 1974, Rhodes was again eligible to run, and did so.

I bring this story up for its relevance to the current presidential election.

All the polls indicated a strong sweep for Gilligan against Rhodes. Significant numbers of citizens of Cuyahoga County, i.e., basically Cleveland, didn’t vote. In fact, about two hundred thousand Cuyahoga County and other northern Ohio residents, most of them Democrats, stayed home apparently thinking that Gilligan had it wrapped up, and their votes weren’t needed. Rhodes won by fewer than 100,000 votes.

Several pundits (does that word really consist of “pun”—playing with words—and “dits”—short for ditzy?) are now beginning to view the upcoming election as a blowout for Obama. Wrong. Nothing is a blowout until the votes have actually been cast and counted. If all the new young Democrats vote who have participated in the primaries and caucuses, and don’t sit home thinking that Obama has it wrapped up, and if latent racism isn’t an issue, then Yes I agree Obama should win. If they don’t vote, he may indeed not win.

But we must leave nothing to chance. In honor of Kathleen Sebelius’ dad, we must vote in November. And for many, many other reasons.