#4 McCaikabee could be a problem....

“Moreover” (as one of my university students once BEGAN his out-of-class essay for me years ago), I really am trying to keep these posts shorter. But it’s not happening with this one.

So I uncovered that this student, who began his essay with “Moreover,” had copied it wholesale from US News and World Report. But for some reason he had started with paragraph two of the article. Cleverly, I had suspected early on that there was a problem with his paper. It was similar to the problem a friend of ours encountered years earlier as she began reading a plagiarized paper turned in by one of her high school students: “We British….”

A potential problem for the Democrats is a Republican McCaikabee ticket. John McCain is desperately trying to showcase his conservative credentials in order to sew up the nomination. Normally, I would think, ‘Hallelujah! We can grab the center of the political spectrum where we should have been in 2000 and 2004 as well!’

Well, Not So Fast, Blogger!. Both Hillary and Obama have no credibility as centrists. They have been branded as liberals and Barack, at least, has been voted the Senate’s most liberal member. That doesn’t particularly bother me: in my current state of residence, I look like a liberal. But I’m not the problem. I’m voting Democratic whichever one is nominated. Hell, I’m voting Democratic even if no one is nominated. The problem is that a lot of folk out there won’t vote for perceived liberals.

A potentially bigger problem for the Democrats is that McCain isn’t really a deep-down, dyed-in-the-wool, across-the-board conservative, and that’s why he’s having so much trouble convincing his own party’s base that he is. Oh, sure, he takes some political stands that conservatives take, but he also takes some stands that they oppose. To me that makes him more independent/not-partyline/perhaps-even-centrist. Oops.

Possible Republican Strategy?
Right now, here’s my thinking, subject to change of course, since I’m not running for president and don’t have to endure the shouts of “HE’S FLIPFLOPPING!” Several TV analysts on Super Tuesday stated that, if the Republicans were smart, they’d at least consider a McCain-Huckabee ticket.

It is true that Huckabee appeals to significant portions of the far right, with particular power in the south, and only in part because he’s from Arkansas: more to the point, his religious views resonate with a large minority of voters, and his fiscal views can pick up enough other voters to carry perhaps all of the old confederacy, with the possible exception of Florida (and even FL, we may remember, has had trouble deciding its electoral preferences, or at least how to cast a vote for them).

Of course, Republican strategists may be put off by the January Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that showed forty-five percent of Americans have concerns about an evangelical Christian as president. On the other hand, that leaves fifty-five percent of Americans surveyed who have not stated having such concerns. Besides, Huckabee would be second on the Republican ticket…behind a man nineteen years his senior. Oops…again.

But wait. There’s more: Huckabee has taken positions, online, that may provide specific areas of alarm for moderates, such as evolution and gay marriage. His various websites include the following innocuous-sounding comments:

"I think that the state ought to give students exposure to all points of view. And I would hope that that would be all points of view and not only evolution. I think that they also should be given exposure to the theories not only of evolution but to the basis of those who believe in creationism.... I think [evolution] is something kids ought to be exposed to. I do not necessarily buy into the traditional Darwinian theory, personally. But that does not mean that I’m afraid that somebody might find out what it is."

"I support and have always supported passage of a federal constitutional amendment that defines marriage as a union between one man and one woman. As President, I will fight for passage of this amendment. My personal belief is that marriage is between one man and one woman, for life."

Well, okay, they’re actually NOT innocuous-sounding. And they sure as heck aren’t innocuous. But they’re very appealing to extreme-right conservatives.

Thus, in a general election against an Obama- or Hillary-led ticket, McCain could try to take the middle ground, and Huckabee could try to secure the further right (furthest right?) for the Republican ticket. Look at a red and blue map from the last two elections, and you’ll see it favoring the GOP again. Third “Oops.” Unless…

Possible Democratic Strategy?
The Democrats may have blown it already, with two perceived liberals the only potential presidential nominees left in the campaign. At the very least, whoever is on the Democratic ticket will have to hold on to the blue states, and win at least one midsized red state, or two or three small red states in order to get the electoral votes needed. I don’t think an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket will succeed.

Obama may be electable IF (and this is a big If) the young people who have flocked to his campaign continue at his side, and actually register and vote. They have large numbers. The current Democratic nomination process, reformed after the 1968 nominating process that subverted the significance of Eugene McCarthy’s anti-war youth following, could result in an Obama nomination. And a continued strong showing of new young voters could propel him to victory. I like his policies, and would be happy to vote for him. My vote, however, and the vote of both of my friends, may not be enough.

Right now at least, I believe that Hillary is less electable than Barack. Legitimately or not, she has been portrayed as divisive, and folk are currently buying that picture. I find that so incredibly ironic: dubya ran in 2000 as a Uniter (even before he called himself the Decider), but the only thing he has successfully united is the strongest opposition to a president’s policies since Viet Nam.

My concern is that people won’t listen to what Hillary Clinton’s policy points are, and hence won’t recognize that her proposals are reasonable and humane. Further, her position on health care is vital to our future, and to our children’s futures, and to their children’s futures.

With either of these senators at the head of the ticket, the Democrats will need a moderate (i.e., centrist) vice-presidential candidate. Preferably a popular and moderate Democrat from a red state. If we look in the right places, several medium-to-strong possibilities emerge. Over the next several posts we can begin to look.