#33 The (potentially, possibly, perhaps) Definitive Electoral College as It Now Stands

I promised the faithful readers of this blog that I would post updates on my view of how the electoral college would sort itself out during this election campaign. I did so initially in post #17 on April 14, and again in post #26 on June 5.

Following the commentary in the post is my current list:

Obama with 255 pretty secure (not entirely) electoral votes;
McCain with 202 (pretty secure);
Tossup lagging with 81.

Of those 81, I think 22 are leaning Republican and 5 are leaning Democratic. Even if they end up that way, Obama would have 260 and McCain would have 224. The candidates would be fighting over the remaining 54 electoral votes.

I say that McCain's 202 electoral votes are "pretty secure" because I don't see much chance, barring something really bad (read that, stupid) coming out of his campaign, that he will lose any of these states. Florida of course is being listed by "those who know" as a battleground state. I don't have much faith that it will become so unless the Hispanic and Jewish votes there go strongly for Obama, and right now I don't see that as very likely. Or perhaps if Bill Nelson (Democratic senator from Florida) becomes the Democratic VP candidate, and even then I don't know if that would be enough to swing Florida to Blue. Hence, I've put Florida pretty strongly in the McCain column. The large African American vote for Obama that might be expected in South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana probably won't materialize. In Louisiana, many African Americans who were moved out of state during Katrina have not returned, and as a result remain displaced and disenfranchised.

Sam Nunn's presence on the Democratic ticket in the VP position might inch one or two southern states toward the Democrats, but that strategy failed miserably four years ago when John Kerry put John Edwards on the ticket. Of course, we all know Sam Nunn--and John Edwards, sir, is no Sam Nunn. There's at least one other way to get some leverage in the south (Jim Webb of Virginia -- tell me you're surprised I've brought him up again!).

If I'm to be surprised in the south, I expect it would be in South Carolina or, a state where I dare to hold quietly to some hope, North Carolina. The research triangle (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) has brought a significant number of non-conservatives into the area. I just don't think they have the numbers yet. While I'm not betting that any of these southern states will vote for Obama, I am hoping to be happily surprised somewhere in the south.

Still, at this point, I've listed the south as pretty solid for McCain.

Obama's 255 are "not entirely" secure mainly because I don't yet have a good feel for how the key midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, even Wisconsin will vote. I suspect they will go Democratic for economic reasons. Pennsylvania has to go Democratic for the Democrats to win in November, and I think Obama can win that state without making Ed Rendell his VP candidate. Actually, he has to. He needs to use his VP position elsewhere. And yes, I know that Pennsylvania is not a midwestern state: but Obama will already likely do well in eastern Pennsylvania; he will need to carry the western part as well, which will present a challenge in its affinity toward Ohio more than toward the Philadelphia area. Pittsburgh will have to provide Obama with a strong majority in western Pennsylvania.

Ah yes, Ohio. Although Governor Ted Strickland has indicated he doesn't want to be Vice President, he would almost definitely add Ohio to the Democratic column in November and, while I think Obama can win without Ohio, it would be so much easier and more convincing if he carried those 20 electoral votes. Sherrod Brown, Ohio's Democratic senator, is much less well known than Strickland nationally, but he also would be a strong agent within the state to make the Scarlet and Gray become Blue.

Michigan is not a gimmee for Obama either. But unemployment in the industrial midwest is reaching horribly painful levels, and eventually (i.e., before election day) the pain of plant closings will manifest itself as Democratic votes. Finally, the economy will be the hot issue, given the price increases of oil, bread, and milk. And almost everything else.

New Hampshire in the solid Obama column might raise some of your eyebrows. It's true that McCain has run strongly there in primaries. But that's with already-Republican voters. In a statewide election between Democrats and Republicans, Obama will carry the state. You heard it here first. If I'm wrong, then you don't remember where you heard it.

Besides, any state that can give us Jed Bartlett just about HAS to give us Barack Obama. Especially since, until his last two or three years on the air, Bartlett was one of the best presidents we've always wished we had. Remember, too, that in 2004, there was a movement uncovered among soap opera buffs to vote for Bartlett against dubya.

I was going to write, "By this time, we might have expected one or the other party to have said more about a VP choice." Have you noticed how quiet that discussion has become? Obama is mending fences, and someone besides me just might have suggested to John McCain to let the Democrats announce first. That would be the smart thing for the McCain campaign to do, because then they could counter the Democrats' strategy.

I'll discuss the TOSSUPS two posts from now, since it's in the tossup states that the election will likely be decided. And now, the electoral college list, as seen by triton, as of early July:

----- -----
McCAIN

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Nebraska 5
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Wyoming 3

Currently 202 electoral votes for McCain

----- -----
OBAMA

California 55
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17 (Tossup? despite auto factory closures and McCain’s ineptitude talking to Michiganders?)
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Ohio 20 (because of auto factory closures)
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21 (Tossup?)
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Wisconsin 10

Currently 255 electoral votes for Obama

----- -----
TOSSUP
Arkansas 6 (Republican?)
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7 (because of Lieberman)
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10 (depending on the Republican’s VP)
Missouri 11 T (Republican?)
Montana 3
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5 (Democrat?--depending on what Bill Richardson does)
Virginia 13 (depending on the Democrat’s VP)
West Virginia 5 (Republican?)

Currently 81 electoral votes are tossups, with 22 leaning Republican, 5 leaning Democratic, and 54 still up in the air.