#41 An October (September? early November?) surprise

Recent polls have shown how mixed the views of the voting public are about the two soon-to-be-named presidential candidates. But they also lead to a possible strategy behind the scenes in the current administration (read that: "the Evil Karl Rove" who, though he has resigned his official position, is still sneaking in the shadows, like a vampire intent on bloodsucking before the sun rises).

On the one hand, polls show that voters consider the economy to be the most important issue in the campaign and, by a 53% to 39% margin, believe that Obama will handle this issue better than McCain.

On the other hand, a Washington Post/ABC survey shows that 50% of anticipated voters say they trust McCain to lead better in a crisis, against 41% for Obama. A CBS News/New York Times poll gives Obama a six-point lead overall over McCain, but 82% believe that McCain will be an effective commander-in-chief, while only 62% feel Obama will be effective.

My concern: expect an October 'surprise' that will highlight McCain's better poll numbers as potential commander-in-chief and "leader-in-a-crisis." The surprise may come as early as September or as late as the beginning of November just before the election, but if McCain is still behind in the national polls expect some crisis that will highlight his perceived competency.

It wouldn't be the first time an administration has manufactured a crisis to affect an election. And the current administration has shown itself particularly immune to moral considerations.

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