Here's what John Zogby has to say about his poll today:
1. No evidence that Obama benefited from the infomercial.
2. Obama's support dropped 1.1%, McCain's gained 0.8%.
3. The last day of polling had McCain winning 48% to 47%. Zogby cautions us to wait until the weekend to see if McCain really has traction.
Says Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today [Friday], 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.
"Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow [Saturday], we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
Ignore the other polls, I guess is Zogby's point, which show Obama with a 4% to 11% lead nationally, and ahead in battleground states CO, FL, IA, NM, NV, OH, and VA, and tied with McCain in NC, IN, and MO. Heck, Indiana shouldn't even be a battleground state.
What Obama needs to do is solidify his support in all the states that Kerry carried in 2004 (including, I guess particularly including, PA), and then solidify his support in the 2004 Red states that I've already listed in Obama's column: CO, IA, NM, NV, ad VA. That will easily put him over the 270 needed. Joe Biden should spend even more time in PA and OH and anywhere else his blue-collar background can help the ticket.
Given the enthusiasm of Obama's supporters, and the depression of McCain's supporters, I cannot believe (barring really latent racism) that McCain can come back. Frankly, I don't believe the Zogby poll. But we'll know by Tuesday evening. And yes, I don't believe this election will drag on for days or weeks past Tuesday.
With any luck at all, Joe-the-plumber, whose real name is Sam and who isn't a plumber, will be laid to rest.
-- triton --
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
I hope you are right, both about the Zogby poll and about this all being over on Tuesday. I can't take another election like the last two.
Post a Comment