I promised the faithful readers of this blog that I would post updates on my view of how the electoral college would sort itself out during this election campaign. I did so initially in post #17 on April 14, and again in post #26 on June 5.
Following the commentary in the post is my current list:
Obama with 255 pretty secure (not entirely) electoral votes;
McCain with 202 (pretty secure);
Tossup lagging with 81.
Of those 81, I think 22 are leaning Republican and 5 are leaning Democratic. Even if they end up that way, Obama would have 260 and McCain would have 224. The candidates would be fighting over the remaining 54 electoral votes.
I say that McCain's 202 electoral votes are "pretty secure" because I don't see much chance, barring something really bad (read that, stupid) coming out of his campaign, that he will lose any of these states. Florida of course is being listed by "those who know" as a battleground state. I don't have much faith that it will become so unless the Hispanic and Jewish votes there go strongly for Obama, and right now I don't see that as very likely. Or perhaps if Bill Nelson (Democratic senator from Florida) becomes the Democratic VP candidate, and even then I don't know if that would be enough to swing Florida to Blue. Hence, I've put Florida pretty strongly in the McCain column. The large African American vote for Obama that might be expected in South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana probably won't materialize. In Louisiana, many African Americans who were moved out of state during Katrina have not returned, and as a result remain displaced and disenfranchised.
Sam Nunn's presence on the Democratic ticket in the VP position might inch one or two southern states toward the Democrats, but that strategy failed miserably four years ago when John Kerry put John Edwards on the ticket. Of course, we all know Sam Nunn--and John Edwards, sir, is no Sam Nunn. There's at least one other way to get some leverage in the south (Jim Webb of Virginia -- tell me you're surprised I've brought him up again!).
If I'm to be surprised in the south, I expect it would be in South Carolina or, a state where I dare to hold quietly to some hope, North Carolina. The research triangle (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) has brought a significant number of non-conservatives into the area. I just don't think they have the numbers yet. While I'm not betting that any of these southern states will vote for Obama, I am hoping to be happily surprised somewhere in the south.
Still, at this point, I've listed the south as pretty solid for McCain.
Obama's 255 are "not entirely" secure mainly because I don't yet have a good feel for how the key midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, even Wisconsin will vote. I suspect they will go Democratic for economic reasons. Pennsylvania has to go Democratic for the Democrats to win in November, and I think Obama can win that state without making Ed Rendell his VP candidate. Actually, he has to. He needs to use his VP position elsewhere. And yes, I know that Pennsylvania is not a midwestern state: but Obama will already likely do well in eastern Pennsylvania; he will need to carry the western part as well, which will present a challenge in its affinity toward Ohio more than toward the Philadelphia area. Pittsburgh will have to provide Obama with a strong majority in western Pennsylvania.
Ah yes, Ohio. Although Governor Ted Strickland has indicated he doesn't want to be Vice President, he would almost definitely add Ohio to the Democratic column in November and, while I think Obama can win without Ohio, it would be so much easier and more convincing if he carried those 20 electoral votes. Sherrod Brown, Ohio's Democratic senator, is much less well known than Strickland nationally, but he also would be a strong agent within the state to make the Scarlet and Gray become Blue.
Michigan is not a gimmee for Obama either. But unemployment in the industrial midwest is reaching horribly painful levels, and eventually (i.e., before election day) the pain of plant closings will manifest itself as Democratic votes. Finally, the economy will be the hot issue, given the price increases of oil, bread, and milk. And almost everything else.
New Hampshire in the solid Obama column might raise some of your eyebrows. It's true that McCain has run strongly there in primaries. But that's with already-Republican voters. In a statewide election between Democrats and Republicans, Obama will carry the state. You heard it here first. If I'm wrong, then you don't remember where you heard it.
Besides, any state that can give us Jed Bartlett just about HAS to give us Barack Obama. Especially since, until his last two or three years on the air, Bartlett was one of the best presidents we've always wished we had. Remember, too, that in 2004, there was a movement uncovered among soap opera buffs to vote for Bartlett against dubya.
I was going to write, "By this time, we might have expected one or the other party to have said more about a VP choice." Have you noticed how quiet that discussion has become? Obama is mending fences, and someone besides me just might have suggested to John McCain to let the Democrats announce first. That would be the smart thing for the McCain campaign to do, because then they could counter the Democrats' strategy.
I'll discuss the TOSSUPS two posts from now, since it's in the tossup states that the election will likely be decided. And now, the electoral college list, as seen by triton, as of early July:
----- -----
McCAIN
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Nebraska 5
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Wyoming 3
Currently 202 electoral votes for McCain
----- -----
OBAMA
California 55
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17 (Tossup? despite auto factory closures and McCain’s ineptitude talking to Michiganders?)
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Ohio 20 (because of auto factory closures)
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21 (Tossup?)
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Wisconsin 10
Currently 255 electoral votes for Obama
----- -----
TOSSUP
Arkansas 6 (Republican?)
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7 (because of Lieberman)
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10 (depending on the Republican’s VP)
Missouri 11 T (Republican?)
Montana 3
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5 (Democrat?--depending on what Bill Richardson does)
Virginia 13 (depending on the Democrat’s VP)
West Virginia 5 (Republican?)
Currently 81 electoral votes are tossups, with 22 leaning Republican, 5 leaning Democratic, and 54 still up in the air.
Showing posts with label Bill Nelson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bill Nelson. Show all posts
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
#24 Obama has clinched, says AP
Online news reports from the Associated Press indicate that Barack Obama--the first term Democratic senator from Illinois, with little domestic policy experience and no foreign policy experience; with a difficult construct from his erstwhile connection with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago; with no military experience and a strongly-stated but ill-defined anti-war position about Iraq; with problems appealing to blue collar white voters--has clinched the Democratic nomination to run for president.
How can someone with so much going against him have a chance, one has to ask.
Well, someone with fewer qualifications won twice, another can answer; and we all know how george w bush has done.
Luckily, Obama is smarter than dubya, has better people working for him than dubya has, and is apparently less greedy than dubya's vice president and handlers have been.
Seriously, folks, Barack Obama may or may not become a good president, but the one we have now is an unmitigated disaster. dubya's policies (as I've tried to show in posts 19, 20, and 21) have been bad for America and for most Americans. That's why, today, dubya's approval rating stands at 28%. There should be exclamation points after that sentence. Let us remember that in any given presidential election, 40% of the voters will vote Democratic regardless of the candidate, 40% of the voters will vote Republican regardless of the candidate, and 20% of the voters are the folk the two candidates are actually fighting over. Thus it is that 30% of core Republicans have forsaken dubya (the 40% of total voters who "always" vote Republican minus the 28% of total voters who still approve of the job dubya's done; that's the 12% of total voters who normally vote Republican who think dubya's not doing well, divided by the 40% who normally vote Republicans regardless of who the nominee is). I don't apologize for the math. Math is important in this election, very important. It's almost a Sesame Street scenario: "This election has been brought to you by the number 270."
John McCain may already have won back some of that 12% but he starts behind Obama--behind virtually any decent Democrat--mathematically. And today's news indicates that Obama actually is polling ahead of McCain, even before the Democrat has received enough delegates to be nominated, and months AFTER McCain had garnered enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.
Barring a large number of racist individuals who are keeping their racism to themselves (and there may be a large number, but if they don't admit it we won't know until November), Obama should be favored to win. Can he lose it? Sure. By screwing up, or by being screwed up, either by another guilt-by-association as with Rev Wright, or by misspeaking (which McCain is more likely to do than Obama is), or by Hillary not rallying her supporters behind Obama. These are possibilities, but Obama's campaign is so well organized and he and his supporters are so articulate the odds favor their not screwing up badly.
Picking the wrong Vice President candidate is still a major possible screwup, however. Hillary should not be chosen. Not chosen. No. Hillary should be promised a position in his cabinet should he be elected. Secretary of Health and Human Services would be perfect for her, and would give her a chance to push for universal health care with what we hope will be a significant majority in both the House and the Senate. A significant point on the side here is that NY has a Democratic governor who will then appoint a Democrat replacement for her in the Senate. The Democrats cannot afford to lose Senate seats by appointing to the cabinet senators from states with Republican governors.
Similarly, Bill Richardson could be a strong possibility for Secretary of State. God knows , and so do many voters, that he has international policy experience, both from his service in the UN and from his subliminal negotiations abroad.
I still come back to Ted Strickland (my #1 choice), Bill Nelson, or James Webb (my heart-on favorite) as VP candidates. Their three states are tossups, and the presence of any one of these as VP candidate on the ticket could move his particular state into the Blue column in November.
Next time: where the electoral votes stand in June, with five months (less, by the time I post) to go.
--triton--
How can someone with so much going against him have a chance, one has to ask.
Well, someone with fewer qualifications won twice, another can answer; and we all know how george w bush has done.
Luckily, Obama is smarter than dubya, has better people working for him than dubya has, and is apparently less greedy than dubya's vice president and handlers have been.
Seriously, folks, Barack Obama may or may not become a good president, but the one we have now is an unmitigated disaster. dubya's policies (as I've tried to show in posts 19, 20, and 21) have been bad for America and for most Americans. That's why, today, dubya's approval rating stands at 28%. There should be exclamation points after that sentence. Let us remember that in any given presidential election, 40% of the voters will vote Democratic regardless of the candidate, 40% of the voters will vote Republican regardless of the candidate, and 20% of the voters are the folk the two candidates are actually fighting over. Thus it is that 30% of core Republicans have forsaken dubya (the 40% of total voters who "always" vote Republican minus the 28% of total voters who still approve of the job dubya's done; that's the 12% of total voters who normally vote Republican who think dubya's not doing well, divided by the 40% who normally vote Republicans regardless of who the nominee is). I don't apologize for the math. Math is important in this election, very important. It's almost a Sesame Street scenario: "This election has been brought to you by the number 270."
John McCain may already have won back some of that 12% but he starts behind Obama--behind virtually any decent Democrat--mathematically. And today's news indicates that Obama actually is polling ahead of McCain, even before the Democrat has received enough delegates to be nominated, and months AFTER McCain had garnered enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.
Barring a large number of racist individuals who are keeping their racism to themselves (and there may be a large number, but if they don't admit it we won't know until November), Obama should be favored to win. Can he lose it? Sure. By screwing up, or by being screwed up, either by another guilt-by-association as with Rev Wright, or by misspeaking (which McCain is more likely to do than Obama is), or by Hillary not rallying her supporters behind Obama. These are possibilities, but Obama's campaign is so well organized and he and his supporters are so articulate the odds favor their not screwing up badly.
Picking the wrong Vice President candidate is still a major possible screwup, however. Hillary should not be chosen. Not chosen. No. Hillary should be promised a position in his cabinet should he be elected. Secretary of Health and Human Services would be perfect for her, and would give her a chance to push for universal health care with what we hope will be a significant majority in both the House and the Senate. A significant point on the side here is that NY has a Democratic governor who will then appoint a Democrat replacement for her in the Senate. The Democrats cannot afford to lose Senate seats by appointing to the cabinet senators from states with Republican governors.
Similarly, Bill Richardson could be a strong possibility for Secretary of State. God knows , and so do many voters, that he has international policy experience, both from his service in the UN and from his subliminal negotiations abroad.
I still come back to Ted Strickland (my #1 choice), Bill Nelson, or James Webb (my heart-on favorite) as VP candidates. Their three states are tossups, and the presence of any one of these as VP candidate on the ticket could move his particular state into the Blue column in November.
Next time: where the electoral votes stand in June, with five months (less, by the time I post) to go.
--triton--
Friday, May 23, 2008
#23 Weirdness is Running for Vice
Well, that title got your attention. And it's true. Weirdness is the word for what's going on with McCain and Obama looking at vice presidential possibilities.
McCain is allegedly interviewing Mitt Romney, Charlie Crist, and Bobby Jindal this long weekend. "We're just going to go hiking and boating, and sit around the campfire and eat beans and talk man talk and do ballsy stuff," McCain was not quoted as saying when asked directly if he was interviewing potential vice presidential candidates.
Romney, a native of Michigan, a former governor of Massachusetts, and a current Mormon, has the business and economic experience that McCain admittedly lacks. He's actually not a bad political choice. He would bring Utah into the Republican column, and probably Idaho (where Mormons dominate the southern desert). The only problem is that Utah and Idaho are so completely committed to voting Republican that were no one to show up on election day they would still vote for McCain. Thus, it isn't necessary to put Romney on the ticket unless he could also bring Michigan to the dark side. I mean, the Red side. Barring something extremely weird, I don't see Massachusetts voting Red even with Romney on the ticket.
Crist is the governor of Florida, and would do wonders to secure that all the Chads in the state would vote Republican. His presence on the ticket would just about sew up Florida as a Red state again and, if the Democrats were to go with Bill Nelson, would likely negate Bill Nelson's influence on the election. If it appears that McCain will go with Crist, the Democrats need to look elsewhere for their VP candidate. (Ohio might be a good choice.) With Crist and Nelson we encounter a strategic choice for McCain: announce his VP candidate before the Democratic convention, and give the Democrats a chance to choose or bypass Nelson? or hold off to see whom the Democrats select for the VP position and then counter their choice?
Jindal is the first-term governor of Louisiana, a state that is likely to vote Republican after so many African Americans and Caribbean Americans have been disenfranchised as a result of not rebuilding their homes after Katrina. Jindal was a two term congressman and, at age 36, is still the nation's youngest current governor, just barely eligible (35 is the eligibility age) to ascend to the presidency should it be necessary.
Jindal is a weird choice to interview. On the one hand, he is the first elected Indian-American governor in our country's history, and he's very popular in Louisiana. But he's very young, very inexperienced, and very unnecessary on the ticket. He wouldn't solidify either Louisiana or the rest of the south for the Republican ticket any more than it already is--and it already is.
More importantly from a political point of view, Jindal's youthful presence on the Republican ticket would emphasize how old McCain is and looks (and looking even older standing next to Jindal) at a time when McCain seems to have been finally overcoming the age concern.
Maybe McCain will interview some others as well, and is including long shots in order to show those individuals how highly he thinks of them even when he doesn't choose them to be his running mate. I am genuinely suprised that Tim Pawlenty's name has not re-surfaced in recent news stories. Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, is qualified, and could be a serious means of moving MN from Blue state to Red state in November. Besides, the Republican convention is in Minnesota: how better to reward the state than to choose a favorite son to be the vice presedential candidate.
On the Democratic side, Obama seems also to be churning out names for the press, even though he does not yet have quite enough delegates to secure the nomination. By talking VP choices, however, he turns attention away from Hillary's campaigning, and creates the impression of a fait accompli.
Some of the names that Obama's advisors have leaked are just not realistic. As I've said in earlier posts (#7, 8, and 9), Kathleen Sebelius (Kansas) and Jennifer Granholm (Michigan) would be excellent candidates, but having a minority and a woman on the ticket is pushing the envelope a bit too far for voters who are already having trouble with the possibility of Obama heading the ticket. And even to bring up Janet Napolitano, governor of Arizona, has to be a ploy to show her how important she is to the Democratic party. She would add nothing to the ticket, since Arizona is as committed to voting Republican as are Louisiana, Utah, and Idaho.
I still like Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Bill Nelson from Florida (but with the warning about Charlie Crist as possible VP behind McCain), and Jim Webb from Virginia. Bill Ritter, newly elected governor of Colorado (taking office in 2006), and Ken Salazar, senator from Colorado, are two favorite-son possibilities with the party having its convention this summer in Denver. Salazar, by the bye, is in the middle of his first term, and is one of three Hispanic memers of the senate.
Colorado has nine electoral votes, four more than Bill Richardson could bring from New Mexico, only one less than Minnesota's ten. Salazar or Ritter might be a way to counteract the potential loss of Minnesota were Pawlenty to be McCain's running mate, and might have the added advantage of putting some other Rocky Mountain states in play. Jim Webb might bring Virginia's thirteen electoral votes to the Blue side. Florida (27 electoral votes) and Ohio (20 electoral votes) are still the large states very much up for grabs, though I expect Michigan (17 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) to be major battlegrounds as well.
Enough to think about for the time being. Have a wonderful long weekend, good people, and remember: when you retire, every day is a wonderful long weekend.
--triton--
McCain is allegedly interviewing Mitt Romney, Charlie Crist, and Bobby Jindal this long weekend. "We're just going to go hiking and boating, and sit around the campfire and eat beans and talk man talk and do ballsy stuff," McCain was not quoted as saying when asked directly if he was interviewing potential vice presidential candidates.
Romney, a native of Michigan, a former governor of Massachusetts, and a current Mormon, has the business and economic experience that McCain admittedly lacks. He's actually not a bad political choice. He would bring Utah into the Republican column, and probably Idaho (where Mormons dominate the southern desert). The only problem is that Utah and Idaho are so completely committed to voting Republican that were no one to show up on election day they would still vote for McCain. Thus, it isn't necessary to put Romney on the ticket unless he could also bring Michigan to the dark side. I mean, the Red side. Barring something extremely weird, I don't see Massachusetts voting Red even with Romney on the ticket.
Crist is the governor of Florida, and would do wonders to secure that all the Chads in the state would vote Republican. His presence on the ticket would just about sew up Florida as a Red state again and, if the Democrats were to go with Bill Nelson, would likely negate Bill Nelson's influence on the election. If it appears that McCain will go with Crist, the Democrats need to look elsewhere for their VP candidate. (Ohio might be a good choice.) With Crist and Nelson we encounter a strategic choice for McCain: announce his VP candidate before the Democratic convention, and give the Democrats a chance to choose or bypass Nelson? or hold off to see whom the Democrats select for the VP position and then counter their choice?
Jindal is the first-term governor of Louisiana, a state that is likely to vote Republican after so many African Americans and Caribbean Americans have been disenfranchised as a result of not rebuilding their homes after Katrina. Jindal was a two term congressman and, at age 36, is still the nation's youngest current governor, just barely eligible (35 is the eligibility age) to ascend to the presidency should it be necessary.
Jindal is a weird choice to interview. On the one hand, he is the first elected Indian-American governor in our country's history, and he's very popular in Louisiana. But he's very young, very inexperienced, and very unnecessary on the ticket. He wouldn't solidify either Louisiana or the rest of the south for the Republican ticket any more than it already is--and it already is.
More importantly from a political point of view, Jindal's youthful presence on the Republican ticket would emphasize how old McCain is and looks (and looking even older standing next to Jindal) at a time when McCain seems to have been finally overcoming the age concern.
Maybe McCain will interview some others as well, and is including long shots in order to show those individuals how highly he thinks of them even when he doesn't choose them to be his running mate. I am genuinely suprised that Tim Pawlenty's name has not re-surfaced in recent news stories. Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, is qualified, and could be a serious means of moving MN from Blue state to Red state in November. Besides, the Republican convention is in Minnesota: how better to reward the state than to choose a favorite son to be the vice presedential candidate.
On the Democratic side, Obama seems also to be churning out names for the press, even though he does not yet have quite enough delegates to secure the nomination. By talking VP choices, however, he turns attention away from Hillary's campaigning, and creates the impression of a fait accompli.
Some of the names that Obama's advisors have leaked are just not realistic. As I've said in earlier posts (#7, 8, and 9), Kathleen Sebelius (Kansas) and Jennifer Granholm (Michigan) would be excellent candidates, but having a minority and a woman on the ticket is pushing the envelope a bit too far for voters who are already having trouble with the possibility of Obama heading the ticket. And even to bring up Janet Napolitano, governor of Arizona, has to be a ploy to show her how important she is to the Democratic party. She would add nothing to the ticket, since Arizona is as committed to voting Republican as are Louisiana, Utah, and Idaho.
I still like Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Bill Nelson from Florida (but with the warning about Charlie Crist as possible VP behind McCain), and Jim Webb from Virginia. Bill Ritter, newly elected governor of Colorado (taking office in 2006), and Ken Salazar, senator from Colorado, are two favorite-son possibilities with the party having its convention this summer in Denver. Salazar, by the bye, is in the middle of his first term, and is one of three Hispanic memers of the senate.
Colorado has nine electoral votes, four more than Bill Richardson could bring from New Mexico, only one less than Minnesota's ten. Salazar or Ritter might be a way to counteract the potential loss of Minnesota were Pawlenty to be McCain's running mate, and might have the added advantage of putting some other Rocky Mountain states in play. Jim Webb might bring Virginia's thirteen electoral votes to the Blue side. Florida (27 electoral votes) and Ohio (20 electoral votes) are still the large states very much up for grabs, though I expect Michigan (17 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) to be major battlegrounds as well.
Enough to think about for the time being. Have a wonderful long weekend, good people, and remember: when you retire, every day is a wonderful long weekend.
--triton--
Monday, May 5, 2008
#19 A Gut Campaign (1)
I saw Howard Dean on the rerun of last Thursday's Daily Show with Jon Stewart. He could barely get a word in edgewise as JS skewered the Democratic party for incredibly finding a way to lose the presidential election this coming November. However, as my calculations in post #17 indicate, right now the Democrats are likely ahead of the Republicans in electoral votes if the election were to be held right now. I count it 240 D, 237 R, and 61 T(ossup).
Of course, it's a long long time from May to November (yes, the song says December, but the composer wasn't following this election), and anything can happen.
But "anything" had better not happen. Some specific thing is needed, a Democratic victory, to avoid four more years of dubya's failed policies at home and abroad, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. And so I'm suggesting that whoever wins the Democratic nomination for president needs to take two vitally important actions: pick the right Vice Presidential candidate, and run a campaign based on the issues that most affect American citizens, the gut issues which normally do convince voters whom to vote for.
I've written several times about VP candidates, and think Sherrod Brown, Ted Strickland (both from Ohio), Bill Nelson (Florida), and James Webb (Virginia) to be the best choices politically. Webb is my personal favorite but, based on the realities of the electoral college, the least politically useful choice of the four. Based on 2000 and 2004 electoral college results, Ohio or Florida can single-statedly swing the election to the Democrats; Virginia doesn't have enough electoral votes to do so on its own. On the other hand, Webb is an Annapolis graduate and served as a Marine in Vietnam. That background might balance out to some extent John McCain's military credentials.
The gut issues on which I believe the Democratic candidate must campaign are the three E's and an I: the Economy, Education, the Environment, and Iraq.
I don't have much to say about Iraq that hasn't already been said. However, the candidate cannot, MUST NOT, refer to Iraq in any way as a waste; MUST NOT in any way imply that the men and women who died there died in vain. That kind of phrasing will be viewed as an insult to those service-men and -women, and to their families and friends. Over 4,000 Americans have died there, and their memories must be honored far more than the Bush administration had apparently valued their commitment. Remember that their Humvees were not adequately armored, their body suits were not adequately armored, and their weapons were not as reliable as they needed. When Donald Rumsfeld was questioned about sending troops into battle without adequate materiel, he replied, You have to fight the war with the army you have.
Further, the Democratic nominee may not want to state the following viewpoint as bluntly as I'm going to state it, but--if dubya's daughters had been the first two servicewomen to be sent to Iraq, he might not have been so quick to begin a war without a plan to complete it. More universally, if the person who starts a war had to send his children to the front lines first, we'd likely have fewer wars.
Next time: A Gut Campaign (2)
Of course, it's a long long time from May to November (yes, the song says December, but the composer wasn't following this election), and anything can happen.
But "anything" had better not happen. Some specific thing is needed, a Democratic victory, to avoid four more years of dubya's failed policies at home and abroad, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. And so I'm suggesting that whoever wins the Democratic nomination for president needs to take two vitally important actions: pick the right Vice Presidential candidate, and run a campaign based on the issues that most affect American citizens, the gut issues which normally do convince voters whom to vote for.
I've written several times about VP candidates, and think Sherrod Brown, Ted Strickland (both from Ohio), Bill Nelson (Florida), and James Webb (Virginia) to be the best choices politically. Webb is my personal favorite but, based on the realities of the electoral college, the least politically useful choice of the four. Based on 2000 and 2004 electoral college results, Ohio or Florida can single-statedly swing the election to the Democrats; Virginia doesn't have enough electoral votes to do so on its own. On the other hand, Webb is an Annapolis graduate and served as a Marine in Vietnam. That background might balance out to some extent John McCain's military credentials.
The gut issues on which I believe the Democratic candidate must campaign are the three E's and an I: the Economy, Education, the Environment, and Iraq.
I don't have much to say about Iraq that hasn't already been said. However, the candidate cannot, MUST NOT, refer to Iraq in any way as a waste; MUST NOT in any way imply that the men and women who died there died in vain. That kind of phrasing will be viewed as an insult to those service-men and -women, and to their families and friends. Over 4,000 Americans have died there, and their memories must be honored far more than the Bush administration had apparently valued their commitment. Remember that their Humvees were not adequately armored, their body suits were not adequately armored, and their weapons were not as reliable as they needed. When Donald Rumsfeld was questioned about sending troops into battle without adequate materiel, he replied, You have to fight the war with the army you have.
Further, the Democratic nominee may not want to state the following viewpoint as bluntly as I'm going to state it, but--if dubya's daughters had been the first two servicewomen to be sent to Iraq, he might not have been so quick to begin a war without a plan to complete it. More universally, if the person who starts a war had to send his children to the front lines first, we'd likely have fewer wars.
Next time: A Gut Campaign (2)
Friday, March 21, 2008
#14 President McCain has indicated...
Well, that got your attention. And that's what we'll be hearing for the next four years if HRC and BO keep doing a number on each other. In all fairness, to me it sounds as if Hillary is shrill and nasty and all those bad things, though Barack is apparently beginning to tire of being her punching bag and is starting to respond in kind.
Once again, the Democrats have seemingly believed that they will do better as underdogs, as Bill Clinton had been sixteen years ago (my word! has it been that long??), and so, from a "can't lose" position, the Dems have seized the initiative, thrown themselves into the mud, and decided to sling it -- at each other. I cannot believe how stupidly both sides, and especially HRC once her advisors and she realized that she wasn't going to waltz into the White House, have behaved. Worse, now that the media realizes that it probably has been giving Obama a free ride, the reporters are looking for anything that may smell in his background and behavior.
Meanwhile, McCain is getting the free ride. No, I'm not thinking of moving to Canada, eh? I don't like some of McCain's proposed statements, but the new desk chair I got for our anniversary would make a better president than dubya has been, even without me in it. Maybe especially without me in it.
If the election were held right now, President McCain would take office in January 2009. My hope is that the Democrats will start behaving more credibly as presidential candidates, that they will coalesce and support whoever gets the nomination, and that we'll have a Democrat in the White House and more Democrats in the House and the Senate come January. My hope right now also is that I'll win the lottery, and live happily ever after. Yes, yes, I know the punchline: "meet me halfway: buy a ticket." Right now, none of these hopes looks good. But it's a long time until November 4, and American memories can be short. Look how John McCain has been resurrected from the number that Rove's Raiders did on him just eight short years ago.
The Democrats need to start acting like they actually want to win the White House, not because HRC and BO want to be president but because Democratic policies are GOOD for America, and dubya's policies have been bad for America. To win the White House, they need to make nice to one another, and to look at the numbers.
And that brings me to Ed Rendell.
Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania, has been publicly touted as a possible Vice Presidential choice. He’d be excellent. Except it would be a waste of that spot to give it to someone from Pennsylvania. The Democrats MUST win PA to win the presidential election, but if they can’t win it without using the VP slot on the ticket to do so, they probably won’t win the election. They need to give the VP slot to someone who can bring with him a red state. The Democrats have to keep PA in the blue column without using the VP prize to do so.
And, as Liz Sidoti has written (AP, March 4, 2008), “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation — at least for the past 44 years.” Take a hint, donkeys: Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown. But wait. There's more.
They're going to have trouble holding Minnesota in the blue column this year, especially if Governor Pawlenty is the Republican VP candidate. If they lose MN, they will need to win Ohio AND Florida. The Democratic delegates need to decide which of those two states the Democrats can win in November without using the VP position, and then choose an elected official from the other state as the VP. That leaves Jim Webb of Virginia out of the loop, and I don't like that idea, but right now I think they need both OH and FL, to provide some additional security against the possibility of losing MN.
However, all is fluid, and come October, especially if the stock market has really tanked, the picture could be vastly different.
triton
Once again, the Democrats have seemingly believed that they will do better as underdogs, as Bill Clinton had been sixteen years ago (my word! has it been that long??), and so, from a "can't lose" position, the Dems have seized the initiative, thrown themselves into the mud, and decided to sling it -- at each other. I cannot believe how stupidly both sides, and especially HRC once her advisors and she realized that she wasn't going to waltz into the White House, have behaved. Worse, now that the media realizes that it probably has been giving Obama a free ride, the reporters are looking for anything that may smell in his background and behavior.
Meanwhile, McCain is getting the free ride. No, I'm not thinking of moving to Canada, eh? I don't like some of McCain's proposed statements, but the new desk chair I got for our anniversary would make a better president than dubya has been, even without me in it. Maybe especially without me in it.
If the election were held right now, President McCain would take office in January 2009. My hope is that the Democrats will start behaving more credibly as presidential candidates, that they will coalesce and support whoever gets the nomination, and that we'll have a Democrat in the White House and more Democrats in the House and the Senate come January. My hope right now also is that I'll win the lottery, and live happily ever after. Yes, yes, I know the punchline: "meet me halfway: buy a ticket." Right now, none of these hopes looks good. But it's a long time until November 4, and American memories can be short. Look how John McCain has been resurrected from the number that Rove's Raiders did on him just eight short years ago.
The Democrats need to start acting like they actually want to win the White House, not because HRC and BO want to be president but because Democratic policies are GOOD for America, and dubya's policies have been bad for America. To win the White House, they need to make nice to one another, and to look at the numbers.
And that brings me to Ed Rendell.
Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania, has been publicly touted as a possible Vice Presidential choice. He’d be excellent. Except it would be a waste of that spot to give it to someone from Pennsylvania. The Democrats MUST win PA to win the presidential election, but if they can’t win it without using the VP slot on the ticket to do so, they probably won’t win the election. They need to give the VP slot to someone who can bring with him a red state. The Democrats have to keep PA in the blue column without using the VP prize to do so.
And, as Liz Sidoti has written (AP, March 4, 2008), “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation — at least for the past 44 years.” Take a hint, donkeys: Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown. But wait. There's more.
They're going to have trouble holding Minnesota in the blue column this year, especially if Governor Pawlenty is the Republican VP candidate. If they lose MN, they will need to win Ohio AND Florida. The Democratic delegates need to decide which of those two states the Democrats can win in November without using the VP position, and then choose an elected official from the other state as the VP. That leaves Jim Webb of Virginia out of the loop, and I don't like that idea, but right now I think they need both OH and FL, to provide some additional security against the possibility of losing MN.
However, all is fluid, and come October, especially if the stock market has really tanked, the picture could be vastly different.
triton
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
# 10 First Strategy in Jeopardy
Omy, another necessary digression before we get to strategy. On Sunday (Feb 24) Ralph Nader announced his run for president…again. My first reaction was ‘That freakin’ @$$#0!=’ but I don’t think I said “freakin.’” Then I did a little research, and realized that in 2000 he received 2.7% of the popular vote, and may indeed have caused Florida to go to dubya rather than to Gore (though I still can’t shake my own conviction that Brother Jeb had at least as much to do with that result). Okay, any voter can make a mistake once, and by 2004 most of his 2000 supporters realized that, contrary to what Nader had been saying, there IS a difference between the two parties. Hence, in 2004, Nader got 0.3% of the popular vote, and was not a factor. That’s LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF ONE PERCENT of the vote. This year, I believe, he won’t qualify for federal funding. I believe the American people, fooled once but not a second time, will dismiss his candidacy and he will, again, be a non-factor. Is he selfish, self-centered, arrogant, an egotist, and all those other negative things? Perhaps. Or perhaps he’s just lost his mind and doesn’t realize that he is at least in part responsible (from his run in 2000 that may have contributed to dubya’s becoming president) for the deaths of more than 4,000 American and Coalition service-men and -women, and countless tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians. Or maybe he did realize it, and that caused him to lose his mind.
An alternative view is that Nader isn’t senile, and that he is trying to influence the Democratic platform come August, in what he hopes will be the Democrats’ attempt to get him out of the race by adopting his views on the various issues. That would make sense, except that the Democrats already share many of his views. Further, he needs to remember that the Democratic Senate and House the last year-plus were not veto-proof, and so they had to accommodate dubya to some extent if ANYthing were to get accomplished.
In either case, Nader’s not going to make it to the finish line this year. Remember: you saw it here first. If I’m wrong…you don’t remember where you saw it.
And now, what this post was supposed to be about, BR (Before Ralph):
In one area in particular my first strategy—picking a vice presidential candidate who will balance the ticket by being a centrist from a red state that he can move to the blue—may not work out as I hope, despite the strong potential VP candidates for the Democratic party. Clearly, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Sherrod Brown, Bill Richardson, and possibly others, could provide a great advantage in the national election. Strickland, Nelson and Brown in particular could potentially bring a large number of electoral votes into the Democratic column if they helped to carry their home states. Any of these potential VP candidates for the Democrats will provide more talent than anyone I can think of as a VP candidate for the Republicans.
But the Republicans have the advantage in scheduling. The Democrats are convening in Denver to nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidates from August 25 to 28, and the Republicans have scheduled their convention in the twin cities of Minneapolist/St. Paul immediately after, from September 1 to 4.
In post #8, I indicated that Minnesota, while nominally a blue state, is pretty closely contested between the Democrats and the Republicans. I don’t know if holding their convention there will actually help the Republicans. I am surprised, however, they’re holding it on the Labor Day weekend. Of course, the nominations and acceptance speeches will take place after Labor Day, so they may not lose much audience.
And maybe the Republicans don’t want a large audience for the discussion of their national platform, which will likely be strongly right-wing: anti-Choice, pro-Finish-the-Job-in-Iraq, and an echoing call to balance the budget (echoing since it will be so hollow). Oh, and maybe some form of providing vouchers, chits, or some other means of allowing people to send their children to private sectarian schools without having to pay much or anything. dubya sneaked this last item into his State of the Union speech last month (seriously!), somewhere between "Chocolate-for-Everyone" and "Tax-Breaks-for-the-Rich-Trickle-Down-to-Soak-the-rest-of-You-Slobs" (okay, so I made up those last two; but dubya would have put them in had he thought of them).
With their convention coming after the Democrats meet, the Republicans have a strategic advantage. If, for example, the Democrats were to nominate Senator Bill Nelson of Florida for VP—both because he’s qualified AND because he may bring Florida into the Democratic column in November—the Republicans could counter by nominating Charlie Crist, the 52 year old governor of Florida, or Mel Martinez, the other senator from Florida. Martinez, elected in November 2005, is much newer to the national scene than is Senator Nelson, and is much less qualified, but he is Hispanic, and he might make major inroads in the Hispanic vote nationally. A Martinez VP nomination could help swing Florida and other states with large Hispanic populations into the Republican camp. Let’s remember that Hispanics are now the largest minority in the country. That could be a lot of votes going red instead of blue in November. And please let’s not claim there’s no such thing as block voting, not when something like 70% to 80% of the African Americans voting in the later Democratic primaries were voting for BO. I have no problem with that size vote, but that looks pretty darn block size to me. Of course, in my view there's a significant difference in qualifications between Obama and Martinez, since I'm far more partial to the former as a candidate than I am to the latter.
Another possibility, with the Republican convention already in the Twin Cities, is that Senator McCain could choose Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, in order to make inroads into what had been a blue state (though weakly so) for the Democrats. I’m sure there are other possibilities for the Republicans, but frankly…I don’t care.
If his advisors are thinking ahead, John McCain will not announce his VP candidate until just before or early in the Republican convention; that is, AFTER the Democratic convention. That way, the Republicans can see whom the Democrats nominate for VP, and then adjust their own choice accordingly.
Your thoughts and comments are always welcome. Next time: Strategies Two and Three
triton
An alternative view is that Nader isn’t senile, and that he is trying to influence the Democratic platform come August, in what he hopes will be the Democrats’ attempt to get him out of the race by adopting his views on the various issues. That would make sense, except that the Democrats already share many of his views. Further, he needs to remember that the Democratic Senate and House the last year-plus were not veto-proof, and so they had to accommodate dubya to some extent if ANYthing were to get accomplished.
In either case, Nader’s not going to make it to the finish line this year. Remember: you saw it here first. If I’m wrong…you don’t remember where you saw it.
And now, what this post was supposed to be about, BR (Before Ralph):
In one area in particular my first strategy—picking a vice presidential candidate who will balance the ticket by being a centrist from a red state that he can move to the blue—may not work out as I hope, despite the strong potential VP candidates for the Democratic party. Clearly, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Sherrod Brown, Bill Richardson, and possibly others, could provide a great advantage in the national election. Strickland, Nelson and Brown in particular could potentially bring a large number of electoral votes into the Democratic column if they helped to carry their home states. Any of these potential VP candidates for the Democrats will provide more talent than anyone I can think of as a VP candidate for the Republicans.
But the Republicans have the advantage in scheduling. The Democrats are convening in Denver to nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidates from August 25 to 28, and the Republicans have scheduled their convention in the twin cities of Minneapolist/St. Paul immediately after, from September 1 to 4.
In post #8, I indicated that Minnesota, while nominally a blue state, is pretty closely contested between the Democrats and the Republicans. I don’t know if holding their convention there will actually help the Republicans. I am surprised, however, they’re holding it on the Labor Day weekend. Of course, the nominations and acceptance speeches will take place after Labor Day, so they may not lose much audience.
And maybe the Republicans don’t want a large audience for the discussion of their national platform, which will likely be strongly right-wing: anti-Choice, pro-Finish-the-Job-in-Iraq, and an echoing call to balance the budget (echoing since it will be so hollow). Oh, and maybe some form of providing vouchers, chits, or some other means of allowing people to send their children to private sectarian schools without having to pay much or anything. dubya sneaked this last item into his State of the Union speech last month (seriously!), somewhere between "Chocolate-for-Everyone" and "Tax-Breaks-for-the-Rich-Trickle-Down-to-Soak-the-rest-of-You-Slobs" (okay, so I made up those last two; but dubya would have put them in had he thought of them).
With their convention coming after the Democrats meet, the Republicans have a strategic advantage. If, for example, the Democrats were to nominate Senator Bill Nelson of Florida for VP—both because he’s qualified AND because he may bring Florida into the Democratic column in November—the Republicans could counter by nominating Charlie Crist, the 52 year old governor of Florida, or Mel Martinez, the other senator from Florida. Martinez, elected in November 2005, is much newer to the national scene than is Senator Nelson, and is much less qualified, but he is Hispanic, and he might make major inroads in the Hispanic vote nationally. A Martinez VP nomination could help swing Florida and other states with large Hispanic populations into the Republican camp. Let’s remember that Hispanics are now the largest minority in the country. That could be a lot of votes going red instead of blue in November. And please let’s not claim there’s no such thing as block voting, not when something like 70% to 80% of the African Americans voting in the later Democratic primaries were voting for BO. I have no problem with that size vote, but that looks pretty darn block size to me. Of course, in my view there's a significant difference in qualifications between Obama and Martinez, since I'm far more partial to the former as a candidate than I am to the latter.
Another possibility, with the Republican convention already in the Twin Cities, is that Senator McCain could choose Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, in order to make inroads into what had been a blue state (though weakly so) for the Democrats. I’m sure there are other possibilities for the Republicans, but frankly…I don’t care.
If his advisors are thinking ahead, John McCain will not announce his VP candidate until just before or early in the Republican convention; that is, AFTER the Democratic convention. That way, the Republicans can see whom the Democrats nominate for VP, and then adjust their own choice accordingly.
Your thoughts and comments are always welcome. Next time: Strategies Two and Three
triton
Saturday, February 23, 2008
#9 The Senators, Part 2: Indiana, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio.
But first, a Timely Digression/Regression.
On February 17, in post #7 I talked about the Democratic governors who might be considered as VP candidates to run with Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton. Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti discusses six Democratic governors (published on Saturday, Feb. 23).
---------- ---------- ----------
[quoting from Sidoti's article:]
1. Janet Napolitano, Arizona. Age 50, she has proven that she can attract independents and crossover Republicans. In any other year, she could help Democrats capitalize on a changing Southwest. This year that would be tough; McCain is an Arizona senator. But she backed Obama and he might find it advantageous to choose a woman if he wins the nomination.
2. Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas. She knows how to win — twice — in a state that's solidly Republican in presidential elections, which could help the Democratic nominee expand the playing field. Age 59, she has a moderate image and is politically savvy. She's another woman who backed Obama and campaigned for him.
3. Bill Richardson, New Mexico. He ran for president this year but dropped out after poor showings in a celebrity-packed field. A Hispanic who is 60, he appeals to an up-for-grabs constituency in a politically shifting region. He has foreign policy experience.
4. Ted Strickland, Ohio. A big-time Clinton backer, he probably would only be considered for the slot if she wins the nomination. Strickland, 66, had a generally moderate voting record in Congress, and could help deliver the pivotal state for her.
5. Tim Kaine, Virginia. He's another Democrat who ran as a moderate and proved he can win in a state that leans Republican in presidential elections. Virginia, too, is a potential swing state that he could help turn Democratic. Kaine, 49, backed Obama early.
6. Joe Manchin, West Virginia. This first term governor, 60, is popular in the state, and could help put a state that Bush won twice into the Democratic column. He is known nationally for his legislative efforts following several deadly mine accidents.
---------- ---------- ----------
Sidoti maintains that a governor would make a good running mate because the governor has “management experience” that the senators running as the presidential candidates don’t have. That’s a good point. But not good enough. Members of the cabinet can be managers; presidential advisors can be managers; hell, managers can be managers. Besides, no Vice President is going to “manage” a president. Oh. Wait….
Before I move on to the Senators, Part 2, let me comment why I think that four of Sidoti’s ‘nominees’ probably wouldn’t work out for the Democrats.
Napolitano and Sebelius because they’re women, and the Democrats will have either a minority or a woman at the head of the ticket. Somewhere in there they need a white male. Too bluntly stated on my part? Sure. But let’s be honest about what we're probably asking the American voting public to accept: either an African American or a female to be president, when we’ve never had either nominated at the head of a major party ticket? Add a female in the VP slot (or, if HRC gets the presidential nomination, two females on the ticket)? I don't think so. I’m hoping, Hoping, HOPING that our country is ready for an African American or a female to be our president; I’m not willing to push the envelope all the way to the edge. If we do, John McCain will be the next president. He may be, anyway, but let’s at least have a fighting chance.
Richardson and Strickland were on my post #7 lists. Richardson is eminently qualified but would bring only five electoral votes with him. Strickland might help carry Ohio, as might the state’s Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown (see below in the main body of this current post); neither would provide much geographical diversity but, if either can carry Ohio for the Democrats, who cares?
Neither Tim Kaine (Va) nor Joe Manchin (WVa) made the cut onto my VP list, not through any failings of their own, but because I had other, in my view stronger, possibilities. If we’re going to make a play for Virginia’s thirteen electoral votes, I think Sen. James Webb (see below) would make a stronger candidate; and West Virginia (like New Mexico) has only five electoral votes.
Any one of my five choices below is more likely to bring more electoral votes to the Democratic column in November, than are Kaine and Manchin.
And that’s my goal in this blog: to examine how the Democratic ticket can get 270 electoral votes. It ain’t sexy, but it's practical, and the more I learn about John McCain’s proposed policies, the more I realize a Democratic victory in November is very necessary.
End of digression/regression.
At least four of the following senators (and possibly all five) could provide a major boost to the Democratic ticket in November. Their records in elected office portray them as moderates, centrists, whatever it is in the middle of the political spectrum; and they have shown surprising strength in their political races, even though one of them actually won very narrowly (against an incumbent who put his foot in his mouth, in a state that dubya had won two years earlier, 54% to 46%).
(1) Evan Bayh may be from Indiana, but he’s no(e) Dan(e) Quayle(e). dubya won Indiana very easily--60% to 39%--in 2004. Evan Bayh is former governor of the state, and is the son of Indiana’s former senator, Birch Bayh, a progressive Democrat in the 1960s and ‘70s. Evan Bayh is in his second term as senator, but it’s hard to tell what he has actually accomplished. His website is surprisingly unsubstantial: ‘Senator Bayh has helped with this, and participated in that’ sort of listings. So I might add, “And he’s no Birch Bayh either.” Nonetheless, he’s from a state that would go a long way toward putting a Democrat in the White House if it could go blue in November. And Bayh looks the part of a VP. Too superficial? Of course. And he might not work as VP candidate if Obama becomes the presidential nominee—too geographically close; besides, Bayh has already endorsed Hillary. Nonetheless, I’m having trouble getting past the thought of Indiana’s eleven electoral votes possibly in the Democratic column. Bayh does present a potential logistical problem for the Democrats if he runs for VP and is elected: Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor of Indiana, would appoint a Republican as the replacement senator. So, unless the Democrats pick up additional Senate seats, they could actually lose the slim Senate majority they now enjoy.
Give me a minute; maybe I’ll get past my consideration of Evan Bayh…. Nope, I didn’t. Bayh is a dark horse VP candidate, especially should HRC get the nomination.
(2) As I mentioned in discussing the governors, the Democratic national convention is in Colorado this year, and the governor is a Democrat. So is one of the senators, Ken Salazar, elected in 2004. His political positions are all over the map—strong national defense and homeland security, economic opportunity, agriculture, health care affordability, protecting the environment. In other words, he seems to average out as a centrist. And he might be able to bring some of the Rocky Mountain states into the blue column.
(3) Lordy lordy, but I hate to bring up Florida, given its 2000 debacle. “If you like the way we vote, you should see us drive!” was one of the many jokes that came out of that election. dubya was another, but much less funny. Still, I have to bring Florida to the blog, and with good reason. Senator Bill Nelson describes himself as “a principled family man, a staunch advocate for all Floridians and a moderate voice in the increasingly partisan world of national politics.” His position as a political moderate is reinforced by his being a member of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council
Even before being elected to the Senate in 2000 (and certainly since then), he has worked to prevent oil drilling off Florida’s coast; he has worked to insure that veterans and their spouses get the benefits and health care they deserve; he has worked to provide Medicare prescription drug benefits for seniors at a government-negotiated lower cost from the drug companies. His support of veterans and senior citizens are virtuous positions, and he has at least one additional advantage: in January 1986, Bill Nelson spent six days orbiting Earth as a mission specialist aboard the space shuttle Columbia. So he really can claim to have a global view of what's going on. Literally. He may not be John Glenn, but he’s got a lot of strengths that can help the Democratic ticket. And he would provide a big boost in an important state that could, once again, swing the election.
One potential problem: the governor of Florida is a Republican who, should Nelson become VP, would appoint a Republican senator, possibly eliminating the Democratic majority in the Senate.
(4) This would not be a problem if Jim Webb of Virginia were the VP nominee. Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia, is a Democrat (is that POSSIBLE??), and would appoint a Democrat. dubya won the state in 2004 by more than a quarter million votes, and I remember the ultimately joyous near-all-nighter I pulled to watch Webb defeat the self-besieged George Allen in 2006.
Webb has many strong attributes that he could bring to the Democratic ticket in November if he were to be nominated as VP. To some degree, he could counter John McCain. Webb is a Naval Academy graduate; he was first in his class of 243 at the Marine Corps Officers' Basic School in Quantico, Virginia; and he served with the Fifth Marine Regiment in Vietnam. Webb received his J.D. at Georgetown University Law Center in 1975, and has extensive experience with Veterans Affairs.
But there’s another side to Jim Webb that I find particularly appealing: he’s literate. He has written eight books, “including six best-selling novels, and has worked extensively as a screenwriter and producer in Hollywood. He taught literature at the Naval Academy…, has traveled worldwide as a journalist, and earned an Emmy Award…for his PBS coverage of the U.S. Marines in Beirut.” He was an embedded journalist in Afghanistan in 2004; he is an original co-sponsor of bills pertaining to “stronger ethics rules, prescription drug pricing negotiations, the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, stem cell research, energy/global warming, college affordability and rebuilding the military” (quoted from his website).
In other words, he’s a Renaissance Man. I think he would be a tremendous asset to the Democratic ticket.
On the down side, he presented the Democratic response to one of dubya’s speeches last year, and wasn’t energizing. But he was thrust into that artificial situation early in his senatorial career. Senator Webb can be worked with in his speechifying, as President Eisenhower was many years ago when it was obvious that Ike had trouble expressing what were actually pretty intelligent thoughts.
(5) Sherrod Brown was elected to the Senate from Ohio in November 2006, defeating the Republican incumbent 56% to 44%. That is a very impressive win in a state whose citizens, two years earlier, had trouble touching the voter-screen, much less voting intelligently. Seriously, at 55 years old Brown has a long and popular history in Ohio, and could be a great asset to the Democratic ticket. If one looks at his accomplishments in his several elected offices, one would think he’s an Eagle scout. And, actually, he is. If BO heads the ticket, having two candidates from the Midwest would not provide geographical diversity, but Brown looks like a centrist to me, and clearly appeals to “middle America.” If Brown were to become VP, Democratic governor Ted Strickland would appoint a Democrat to replace him, thus protecting the party’s very slim majority in the Senate (even if they don’t gain seats in November).
These last three blog-posts (#7,8,9) contain discussions of possible VP candidates on the Democratic ticket from among current Democratic governors and senators. I invite your ideas and comments. The next post will discuss a potential problem that can arise from the currently scheduled national conventions of both major parties.
triton
On February 17, in post #7 I talked about the Democratic governors who might be considered as VP candidates to run with Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton. Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti discusses six Democratic governors (published on Saturday, Feb. 23).
---------- ---------- ----------
[quoting from Sidoti's article:]
1. Janet Napolitano, Arizona. Age 50, she has proven that she can attract independents and crossover Republicans. In any other year, she could help Democrats capitalize on a changing Southwest. This year that would be tough; McCain is an Arizona senator. But she backed Obama and he might find it advantageous to choose a woman if he wins the nomination.
2. Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas. She knows how to win — twice — in a state that's solidly Republican in presidential elections, which could help the Democratic nominee expand the playing field. Age 59, she has a moderate image and is politically savvy. She's another woman who backed Obama and campaigned for him.
3. Bill Richardson, New Mexico. He ran for president this year but dropped out after poor showings in a celebrity-packed field. A Hispanic who is 60, he appeals to an up-for-grabs constituency in a politically shifting region. He has foreign policy experience.
4. Ted Strickland, Ohio. A big-time Clinton backer, he probably would only be considered for the slot if she wins the nomination. Strickland, 66, had a generally moderate voting record in Congress, and could help deliver the pivotal state for her.
5. Tim Kaine, Virginia. He's another Democrat who ran as a moderate and proved he can win in a state that leans Republican in presidential elections. Virginia, too, is a potential swing state that he could help turn Democratic. Kaine, 49, backed Obama early.
6. Joe Manchin, West Virginia. This first term governor, 60, is popular in the state, and could help put a state that Bush won twice into the Democratic column. He is known nationally for his legislative efforts following several deadly mine accidents.
---------- ---------- ----------
Sidoti maintains that a governor would make a good running mate because the governor has “management experience” that the senators running as the presidential candidates don’t have. That’s a good point. But not good enough. Members of the cabinet can be managers; presidential advisors can be managers; hell, managers can be managers. Besides, no Vice President is going to “manage” a president. Oh. Wait….
Before I move on to the Senators, Part 2, let me comment why I think that four of Sidoti’s ‘nominees’ probably wouldn’t work out for the Democrats.
Napolitano and Sebelius because they’re women, and the Democrats will have either a minority or a woman at the head of the ticket. Somewhere in there they need a white male. Too bluntly stated on my part? Sure. But let’s be honest about what we're probably asking the American voting public to accept: either an African American or a female to be president, when we’ve never had either nominated at the head of a major party ticket? Add a female in the VP slot (or, if HRC gets the presidential nomination, two females on the ticket)? I don't think so. I’m hoping, Hoping, HOPING that our country is ready for an African American or a female to be our president; I’m not willing to push the envelope all the way to the edge. If we do, John McCain will be the next president. He may be, anyway, but let’s at least have a fighting chance.
Richardson and Strickland were on my post #7 lists. Richardson is eminently qualified but would bring only five electoral votes with him. Strickland might help carry Ohio, as might the state’s Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown (see below in the main body of this current post); neither would provide much geographical diversity but, if either can carry Ohio for the Democrats, who cares?
Neither Tim Kaine (Va) nor Joe Manchin (WVa) made the cut onto my VP list, not through any failings of their own, but because I had other, in my view stronger, possibilities. If we’re going to make a play for Virginia’s thirteen electoral votes, I think Sen. James Webb (see below) would make a stronger candidate; and West Virginia (like New Mexico) has only five electoral votes.
Any one of my five choices below is more likely to bring more electoral votes to the Democratic column in November, than are Kaine and Manchin.
And that’s my goal in this blog: to examine how the Democratic ticket can get 270 electoral votes. It ain’t sexy, but it's practical, and the more I learn about John McCain’s proposed policies, the more I realize a Democratic victory in November is very necessary.
End of digression/regression.
At least four of the following senators (and possibly all five) could provide a major boost to the Democratic ticket in November. Their records in elected office portray them as moderates, centrists, whatever it is in the middle of the political spectrum; and they have shown surprising strength in their political races, even though one of them actually won very narrowly (against an incumbent who put his foot in his mouth, in a state that dubya had won two years earlier, 54% to 46%).
(1) Evan Bayh may be from Indiana, but he’s no(e) Dan(e) Quayle(e). dubya won Indiana very easily--60% to 39%--in 2004. Evan Bayh is former governor of the state, and is the son of Indiana’s former senator, Birch Bayh, a progressive Democrat in the 1960s and ‘70s. Evan Bayh is in his second term as senator, but it’s hard to tell what he has actually accomplished. His website is surprisingly unsubstantial: ‘Senator Bayh has helped with this, and participated in that’ sort of listings. So I might add, “And he’s no Birch Bayh either.” Nonetheless, he’s from a state that would go a long way toward putting a Democrat in the White House if it could go blue in November. And Bayh looks the part of a VP. Too superficial? Of course. And he might not work as VP candidate if Obama becomes the presidential nominee—too geographically close; besides, Bayh has already endorsed Hillary. Nonetheless, I’m having trouble getting past the thought of Indiana’s eleven electoral votes possibly in the Democratic column. Bayh does present a potential logistical problem for the Democrats if he runs for VP and is elected: Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor of Indiana, would appoint a Republican as the replacement senator. So, unless the Democrats pick up additional Senate seats, they could actually lose the slim Senate majority they now enjoy.
Give me a minute; maybe I’ll get past my consideration of Evan Bayh…. Nope, I didn’t. Bayh is a dark horse VP candidate, especially should HRC get the nomination.
(2) As I mentioned in discussing the governors, the Democratic national convention is in Colorado this year, and the governor is a Democrat. So is one of the senators, Ken Salazar, elected in 2004. His political positions are all over the map—strong national defense and homeland security, economic opportunity, agriculture, health care affordability, protecting the environment. In other words, he seems to average out as a centrist. And he might be able to bring some of the Rocky Mountain states into the blue column.
(3) Lordy lordy, but I hate to bring up Florida, given its 2000 debacle. “If you like the way we vote, you should see us drive!” was one of the many jokes that came out of that election. dubya was another, but much less funny. Still, I have to bring Florida to the blog, and with good reason. Senator Bill Nelson describes himself as “a principled family man, a staunch advocate for all Floridians and a moderate voice in the increasingly partisan world of national politics.” His position as a political moderate is reinforced by his being a member of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council
Even before being elected to the Senate in 2000 (and certainly since then), he has worked to prevent oil drilling off Florida’s coast; he has worked to insure that veterans and their spouses get the benefits and health care they deserve; he has worked to provide Medicare prescription drug benefits for seniors at a government-negotiated lower cost from the drug companies. His support of veterans and senior citizens are virtuous positions, and he has at least one additional advantage: in January 1986, Bill Nelson spent six days orbiting Earth as a mission specialist aboard the space shuttle Columbia. So he really can claim to have a global view of what's going on. Literally. He may not be John Glenn, but he’s got a lot of strengths that can help the Democratic ticket. And he would provide a big boost in an important state that could, once again, swing the election.
One potential problem: the governor of Florida is a Republican who, should Nelson become VP, would appoint a Republican senator, possibly eliminating the Democratic majority in the Senate.
(4) This would not be a problem if Jim Webb of Virginia were the VP nominee. Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia, is a Democrat (is that POSSIBLE??), and would appoint a Democrat. dubya won the state in 2004 by more than a quarter million votes, and I remember the ultimately joyous near-all-nighter I pulled to watch Webb defeat the self-besieged George Allen in 2006.
Webb has many strong attributes that he could bring to the Democratic ticket in November if he were to be nominated as VP. To some degree, he could counter John McCain. Webb is a Naval Academy graduate; he was first in his class of 243 at the Marine Corps Officers' Basic School in Quantico, Virginia; and he served with the Fifth Marine Regiment in Vietnam. Webb received his J.D. at Georgetown University Law Center in 1975, and has extensive experience with Veterans Affairs.
But there’s another side to Jim Webb that I find particularly appealing: he’s literate. He has written eight books, “including six best-selling novels, and has worked extensively as a screenwriter and producer in Hollywood. He taught literature at the Naval Academy…, has traveled worldwide as a journalist, and earned an Emmy Award…for his PBS coverage of the U.S. Marines in Beirut.” He was an embedded journalist in Afghanistan in 2004; he is an original co-sponsor of bills pertaining to “stronger ethics rules, prescription drug pricing negotiations, the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, stem cell research, energy/global warming, college affordability and rebuilding the military” (quoted from his website).
In other words, he’s a Renaissance Man. I think he would be a tremendous asset to the Democratic ticket.
On the down side, he presented the Democratic response to one of dubya’s speeches last year, and wasn’t energizing. But he was thrust into that artificial situation early in his senatorial career. Senator Webb can be worked with in his speechifying, as President Eisenhower was many years ago when it was obvious that Ike had trouble expressing what were actually pretty intelligent thoughts.
(5) Sherrod Brown was elected to the Senate from Ohio in November 2006, defeating the Republican incumbent 56% to 44%. That is a very impressive win in a state whose citizens, two years earlier, had trouble touching the voter-screen, much less voting intelligently. Seriously, at 55 years old Brown has a long and popular history in Ohio, and could be a great asset to the Democratic ticket. If one looks at his accomplishments in his several elected offices, one would think he’s an Eagle scout. And, actually, he is. If BO heads the ticket, having two candidates from the Midwest would not provide geographical diversity, but Brown looks like a centrist to me, and clearly appeals to “middle America.” If Brown were to become VP, Democratic governor Ted Strickland would appoint a Democrat to replace him, thus protecting the party’s very slim majority in the Senate (even if they don’t gain seats in November).
These last three blog-posts (#7,8,9) contain discussions of possible VP candidates on the Democratic ticket from among current Democratic governors and senators. I invite your ideas and comments. The next post will discuss a potential problem that can arise from the currently scheduled national conventions of both major parties.
triton
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