Well, I knew it would happen. I just didn't know when, or how soon. But race and age are becoming explicit issues, rather than remaining quietly subliminal. In an ideal world, race certainly wouldn't matter, and age might not matter (health is more important than years), but the real world was bound to intrude eventually. It's just happening sooner rather than later.
RACE:
Based on what they were quoted as saying in exit polls for the Pennsylvania primary, some voters indicated that they are "not ready for an African-American president." Honestly, while I recognized that attitude would be held by a small number of pitiful voters, I wasn't expecting it to surface this early or to be expressed this blatantly. But there it is. If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, polls approaching election time may not be even nearly accurate, especially if voters become reticent about expressing their prejudices. We could be looking at even more inaccurate polling in 2008 than we saw in 2004 (Ohio) and 2000 (Florida).
I also have concerns about intimidation of African American voters in some states, either directly by threats or indirectly by sending them to the wrong voting stations or giving them incorrect instructions, both of which practices have occurred in the not-distant past, and not only in the south. Local officials will have to be particularly on guard against either practice, to insure that all who wish to vote get a legitimate opportunity to vote.
AGE:
An AP article today (Sunday) discussed what we already knew: that if he is elected, John McCain will be the oldest president inaugurated for a first term. Reagan was older when he began his second term. But McCain, at 72 (which he will turn in late August), actually seems older than Reagan did at either inauguration, 1981 or 1985. The article discussed the strategies that both parties could employ to emphasize or downplay his age.
Barack Obama will be 47 in early August, nearly a quarter of a century younger than John McCain, but Obama must be careful not to attack McCain's age directly: the Democrats had best not use any of the type of humor that was directed against Robert Dole twelve years ago --"Question: Which underwear does Bob Dole prefer, boxers or briefs? Answer: Depends." Instead, the Obama campaign will have to be more subtle, by emphasizing the Democrat's 21st century perspective rather than McCain's 20th century perspective. Referring to McCain's 19th century perspective would be nearly as insulting and vote-losing as the more direct underwear joke. It may need to be left to the Jon Stewarts, Jay Lenos, David Lettermans, and Conan O'Briens to refer more directly to McCain's age.
John McCain will have to deflect the age issue by humor and by his vice presidential selection. Reagan did both successfully, bringing up age in one of the 1984 debates against Walter Mondale: "I will not make age an issue in this campaign," Reagan said, setting up his audience; "I will not refer to my opponent's youth and inexperience." Everyone got the joke, and Reagan successfully removed age as an issue. Four years earlier, he had selected George H W Bush as his VP running mate; Bush was thirteen years younger, an age difference that reassured much of the American voting public.
Obama and Clinton don't have this kind of problem to contend with, though Obama may have the opposite concern: Hillary has targeted him for his "inexperience" (youthfulness?) in national politics. He has pretty convincingly turned it against her, and he and his handlers may be able to do the same if McCain's operatives attack his lack of national experience.
NOVEMBER:
I don't see any reason yet to change any of the designations I included for each state in post #17. I still see the Democrats--whether Hillary or Barack--as ahead for 240 electoral votes, and McCain ahead for 237, with 61 votes still viewed as tossups. And I still see the major tossup states to be Florida (currently leaning Republican), Pennsylvania (currently leaning Democratic), Minnesota, and Ohio. I also still believe that the Republicans would do well to nominate Gov Pawlenty of MN, and the Democrats would do really well to nominate Nelson (FL), or even better Brown or Strickland (both OH) as their VP candidates. Pennsylvania must go Democratic, but without using the VP position to get it--unless the Democrats can arrange to win Ohio without Brown or Strickland on the ticket. Then Gov Rendell might work as the VP candidate.
Showing posts with label Ed Rendell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ed Rendell. Show all posts
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
#14 President McCain has indicated...
Well, that got your attention. And that's what we'll be hearing for the next four years if HRC and BO keep doing a number on each other. In all fairness, to me it sounds as if Hillary is shrill and nasty and all those bad things, though Barack is apparently beginning to tire of being her punching bag and is starting to respond in kind.
Once again, the Democrats have seemingly believed that they will do better as underdogs, as Bill Clinton had been sixteen years ago (my word! has it been that long??), and so, from a "can't lose" position, the Dems have seized the initiative, thrown themselves into the mud, and decided to sling it -- at each other. I cannot believe how stupidly both sides, and especially HRC once her advisors and she realized that she wasn't going to waltz into the White House, have behaved. Worse, now that the media realizes that it probably has been giving Obama a free ride, the reporters are looking for anything that may smell in his background and behavior.
Meanwhile, McCain is getting the free ride. No, I'm not thinking of moving to Canada, eh? I don't like some of McCain's proposed statements, but the new desk chair I got for our anniversary would make a better president than dubya has been, even without me in it. Maybe especially without me in it.
If the election were held right now, President McCain would take office in January 2009. My hope is that the Democrats will start behaving more credibly as presidential candidates, that they will coalesce and support whoever gets the nomination, and that we'll have a Democrat in the White House and more Democrats in the House and the Senate come January. My hope right now also is that I'll win the lottery, and live happily ever after. Yes, yes, I know the punchline: "meet me halfway: buy a ticket." Right now, none of these hopes looks good. But it's a long time until November 4, and American memories can be short. Look how John McCain has been resurrected from the number that Rove's Raiders did on him just eight short years ago.
The Democrats need to start acting like they actually want to win the White House, not because HRC and BO want to be president but because Democratic policies are GOOD for America, and dubya's policies have been bad for America. To win the White House, they need to make nice to one another, and to look at the numbers.
And that brings me to Ed Rendell.
Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania, has been publicly touted as a possible Vice Presidential choice. He’d be excellent. Except it would be a waste of that spot to give it to someone from Pennsylvania. The Democrats MUST win PA to win the presidential election, but if they can’t win it without using the VP slot on the ticket to do so, they probably won’t win the election. They need to give the VP slot to someone who can bring with him a red state. The Democrats have to keep PA in the blue column without using the VP prize to do so.
And, as Liz Sidoti has written (AP, March 4, 2008), “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation — at least for the past 44 years.” Take a hint, donkeys: Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown. But wait. There's more.
They're going to have trouble holding Minnesota in the blue column this year, especially if Governor Pawlenty is the Republican VP candidate. If they lose MN, they will need to win Ohio AND Florida. The Democratic delegates need to decide which of those two states the Democrats can win in November without using the VP position, and then choose an elected official from the other state as the VP. That leaves Jim Webb of Virginia out of the loop, and I don't like that idea, but right now I think they need both OH and FL, to provide some additional security against the possibility of losing MN.
However, all is fluid, and come October, especially if the stock market has really tanked, the picture could be vastly different.
triton
Once again, the Democrats have seemingly believed that they will do better as underdogs, as Bill Clinton had been sixteen years ago (my word! has it been that long??), and so, from a "can't lose" position, the Dems have seized the initiative, thrown themselves into the mud, and decided to sling it -- at each other. I cannot believe how stupidly both sides, and especially HRC once her advisors and she realized that she wasn't going to waltz into the White House, have behaved. Worse, now that the media realizes that it probably has been giving Obama a free ride, the reporters are looking for anything that may smell in his background and behavior.
Meanwhile, McCain is getting the free ride. No, I'm not thinking of moving to Canada, eh? I don't like some of McCain's proposed statements, but the new desk chair I got for our anniversary would make a better president than dubya has been, even without me in it. Maybe especially without me in it.
If the election were held right now, President McCain would take office in January 2009. My hope is that the Democrats will start behaving more credibly as presidential candidates, that they will coalesce and support whoever gets the nomination, and that we'll have a Democrat in the White House and more Democrats in the House and the Senate come January. My hope right now also is that I'll win the lottery, and live happily ever after. Yes, yes, I know the punchline: "meet me halfway: buy a ticket." Right now, none of these hopes looks good. But it's a long time until November 4, and American memories can be short. Look how John McCain has been resurrected from the number that Rove's Raiders did on him just eight short years ago.
The Democrats need to start acting like they actually want to win the White House, not because HRC and BO want to be president but because Democratic policies are GOOD for America, and dubya's policies have been bad for America. To win the White House, they need to make nice to one another, and to look at the numbers.
And that brings me to Ed Rendell.
Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania, has been publicly touted as a possible Vice Presidential choice. He’d be excellent. Except it would be a waste of that spot to give it to someone from Pennsylvania. The Democrats MUST win PA to win the presidential election, but if they can’t win it without using the VP slot on the ticket to do so, they probably won’t win the election. They need to give the VP slot to someone who can bring with him a red state. The Democrats have to keep PA in the blue column without using the VP prize to do so.
And, as Liz Sidoti has written (AP, March 4, 2008), “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation — at least for the past 44 years.” Take a hint, donkeys: Ted Strickland or Sherrod Brown. But wait. There's more.
They're going to have trouble holding Minnesota in the blue column this year, especially if Governor Pawlenty is the Republican VP candidate. If they lose MN, they will need to win Ohio AND Florida. The Democratic delegates need to decide which of those two states the Democrats can win in November without using the VP position, and then choose an elected official from the other state as the VP. That leaves Jim Webb of Virginia out of the loop, and I don't like that idea, but right now I think they need both OH and FL, to provide some additional security against the possibility of losing MN.
However, all is fluid, and come October, especially if the stock market has really tanked, the picture could be vastly different.
triton
Sunday, March 16, 2008
#13 Politics and the Dow Jones Utilities Average. Plus a teaser about Ed Rendell
That title is a mouthful. But the way the Democrats are attacking each other right now, it may also be the Democrats' best chance to win the election.
Helene Meisler, stock market technical analyst on TheStreet.com, pointed out (3/3/08) that the Dow Jones Utility average hit an apparent high just near the end of 2007. Further, the DJUA may break out--on the downside--of its current head-and-shoulders pattern. Historically, here’s what has happened recently in similar circumstances (quoting Meisler):
“In 1987 the Utes [the Dow Jones Utilities average] made their highs five months before the market did and 7 months before the Crash. In the 2000-2002 bear market, they made their highs in December 2000 well after the major averages did. This time [2007-2008] they made twin highs in December and January.”
If the DJUtilities Average does break down over the next few weeks, we could have a subsequent breakdown in the DJIndustrial Average (and likely the market in general) sometime this summer or, for neatness of appearance and similarity to other market breakdowns (“crashes”), in October 2008. That kind of stock action would bode VERY well for the Democrats, since the crash would occur under a dubya administration and just before the election.
If the DJUtilities Average closes below about 474, it will have broken down out of its head-and-shoulders pattern, and could test the 471 it hit in late August 2007. If it drops below that level, its next major test areas are in the 450 range, then the 420 range, and, going back to March 2006 and November/December 2005, the 390 range. I’m certainly not saying it will drop that far, just that the Utilities average appears right now to be testing a breakdown and has some serious technical downside risk.
So here we are with math again. Sorry 'bout that. But a stock market debacle anytime between July and October would have a major effect on the election, despite the current debacle between HRC and BO. Right now it appears that John McCain is being given pretty much a free ride (some of his religious advisors notwithstanding) while the Democratic hopefuls attack each other. Stupid, stupid way to run for president, Hillary and Barack. Will it take a bunch of gas and electric companies to come to their rescue? On the other hand, the DJUA could test 474, recover, and move up, taking the rest of the market with it. In that case, HRC and BO better mend their fences in a hurry.
Next time: Ed Rendell, current governor of Pennsylvania, former mayor of Philadelphia, and apparently lots of people's favorite choice for VP on the Democratic ticket. Why triton says no.
triton
Helene Meisler, stock market technical analyst on TheStreet.com, pointed out (3/3/08) that the Dow Jones Utility average hit an apparent high just near the end of 2007. Further, the DJUA may break out--on the downside--of its current head-and-shoulders pattern. Historically, here’s what has happened recently in similar circumstances (quoting Meisler):
“In 1987 the Utes [the Dow Jones Utilities average] made their highs five months before the market did and 7 months before the Crash. In the 2000-2002 bear market, they made their highs in December 2000 well after the major averages did. This time [2007-2008] they made twin highs in December and January.”
If the DJUtilities Average does break down over the next few weeks, we could have a subsequent breakdown in the DJIndustrial Average (and likely the market in general) sometime this summer or, for neatness of appearance and similarity to other market breakdowns (“crashes”), in October 2008. That kind of stock action would bode VERY well for the Democrats, since the crash would occur under a dubya administration and just before the election.
If the DJUtilities Average closes below about 474, it will have broken down out of its head-and-shoulders pattern, and could test the 471 it hit in late August 2007. If it drops below that level, its next major test areas are in the 450 range, then the 420 range, and, going back to March 2006 and November/December 2005, the 390 range. I’m certainly not saying it will drop that far, just that the Utilities average appears right now to be testing a breakdown and has some serious technical downside risk.
So here we are with math again. Sorry 'bout that. But a stock market debacle anytime between July and October would have a major effect on the election, despite the current debacle between HRC and BO. Right now it appears that John McCain is being given pretty much a free ride (some of his religious advisors notwithstanding) while the Democratic hopefuls attack each other. Stupid, stupid way to run for president, Hillary and Barack. Will it take a bunch of gas and electric companies to come to their rescue? On the other hand, the DJUA could test 474, recover, and move up, taking the rest of the market with it. In that case, HRC and BO better mend their fences in a hurry.
Next time: Ed Rendell, current governor of Pennsylvania, former mayor of Philadelphia, and apparently lots of people's favorite choice for VP on the Democratic ticket. Why triton says no.
triton
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