# 63 "Numbers" -- Not Just a TV Show Any More

The report I cited in my post last night is still sticking in me, in part because today Yahoo has that report as one of its featured articles, so I'm constantly reminded of it. I've been fearful of latent racism since the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, when some voters indicated they weren't ready to have "an African-American as president."

We shouldn't be surprised, of course, that racial prejudice exists in our society. But the stakes in this election are so high and the Republicans have been running such a dirty, rotten scoundrel campaign that, frankly, I don't see how any one who is not a dyed-in-the-wool, can't-tell-his-ass-from-his-elbow Republican can even consider voting for McCain. On the other hand, I know some smart, good people who are supporting John McCain, so I can't apply my criteria to other folk. They have their own agendas and benchmarks, for good or for ill, and they'll vote the way they think is best.

I'm voting for Obama because (a) his ideas more closely align with my own in foreign and domestic policies; (b) he'll represent us well in international relationships, as dubya has clearly not; (c) he seems not to act impulsively and with anger, as McCain apparently does (at least according to sources from his own campaign); and (d) he chose a running mate based on qualifications, not political considerations. Joe Biden was not my first choice (or my fourth or fifth, for that matter) to be the VP candidate, but he does seem to be connecting with middle- and lower-economic classes in a way that Obama, despite his economically deprived childhood, is apparently not connecting.

Even some Republican elected officials can't support John McCain. Last week Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska said that Governor Palin “doesn’t have any foreign policy credentials” and added that it’s a “stretch” to say that Palin is qualified to be president. This may be the Democrats’ answer to Lady de Rothschild, a former donor to the Democratic party, who 0n September 17 announced her support for McCain and opposition to Obama. Senator Obama is “an elitist,” said the millionaire who married into a billionaire family.

Here are some recent poll numbers, as of late last week:

NYTimes/CBS: Obama 48-43
Gallup: Obama 48-44
CNN Poll of Polls: Obama 47-44
Virginia: McCain 49 to 41
New Mexico: Obama 49-42
Ohio: tied at 48% each, in a two-person race; when the three other candidates were listed, Obama remained at 48%, McCain dropped to 44%, and Nader got 4%.

I also saw that Indiana, which had been moving toward Obama (perhaps when he was considering Evan Bayh as his running mate?) was moving back to McCain.

But the countrywide polls notwithstanding, I'm still upset with the race issue, and have made some changes in how the electoral college stands, from my point of view, right now. John McCain is now favored in five additional traditionally Red states (even though some of them have Democratic governors and/or senators) which previously I had listed as Tossups; Barack Obama will likely carry New Mexico; but I have removed four states from Obama's column, and have moved them to Tossups. Three of the four are vital midwest states: Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Obama had been able to convince Governor Strickland to be his running mate, Ohio might be strongly in the Obama camp.

KEY:
# moved from Tossup to McCain
+ moved from Tossup to Obama
* moved from Obama to Tossup


McCAIN
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
#Missouri 11
#Montana 3
Nebraska 5
#Nevada 5
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
#Virginia 13
#West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3

Currently 26 states with 239 electoral votes for McCain

----- -----
OBAMA
California 55
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 15
+New Mexico 5
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

Currently 16 states + DC with 219 electoral votes for Obama

---- -----
TOSSUP
Arkansas 6 (Republican?)
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7 (because of Lieberman)
Iowa 7
*Michigan 17 (despite auto factory closures and McCain’s ineptitude talking to Michiganders)
*New Hampshire 4 (a bad feeling I'm having right now about Jed Bartlett's state)
*Ohio 20 (despite auto factory closures)
*Wisconsin 10 (McCain spending time and $$ there)

Currently, 8 states with 80 electoral votes are Tossups.

But remember: the election is very fluid and, in addition to the states I've classified as Tossups, several of the states under either candidate can shift (as clearly happened since my last electoral list). Right now, based on the above lists, Obama needs 51 electoral votes: barring any further defections from the Obama column, Connecticut's 7 electoral votes, Michigan's 17, Ohio's 20, and Wisconsin's 10 would give Obama 273 votes and the presidency.

In fact, right now that's the only way I see Obama winning the election: by carrying all three of those midwest states. That's a tough task, especially in Ohio with its strong conservative Republican tradition. A lot will depend on what Governor Strickland and Senator Brown do by way of campaigning.

Two more points: (1) my having even to list Michigan as a tossup is of concern, given the condition of that state's economy; (2) that I had to add Wisconsin is a real shock, and may be a function of McCain's spending time and money there, without yet badly screwing up his appearances.

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