#65 It's Ohio

Pennsylvania may be known as "The Keystone State," but this year, as in 2004, Ohio is the key state. Almost on a daily basis, certainly on a poll-to-poll basis, the lead switches back and forth between Obama and McCain in Ohio, with its twenty electoral votes.

Right now the polls have McCain ahead but barely. A few days ago, Obama was ahead by four points. It's likely to continue to alternate until November 4. If Ted Strickland (the governor) or Sherrod Brown (the senator, though I don't know if he was seriously considered by the Obama camp) had been willing to run for the VP position, Ohio might be more likely to go Democratic this year. Right now, however, it's a tossup.

But it's appearing increasingly likely that, as Ohio goes, so goes the presidency. Once again. That's a scary thought, given Ohioans' documented difficulty to vote as they actually intend, the questionable accuracy of the machines used for the electronic balloting, and 2004's early surprising difference between exit polls and actual votes. The CEO of Diebold, which made the machines used four years ago in Ohio, proudly exclaimed when the company delivered the machines that Bush was going to win the state.

It is possible--but very difficult--for either candidate to win the election without Ohio. It's also very unlikely. I hope that Strickland and Brown will be campaigning for and with Obama in the state.

I'm not saying the other states are unimportant. For Ohio to be the deciding state, the other states have to line up as they are generally expected to do: the south solidly for McCain (and I'll include VA, WV, MO, TX, OK in this group); New England (except possibly for the battleground NH), NY, NJ, PA, MI, MN, and WI solidly for Obama (and some of these are currently questionable); the agricultural midwest solidly for McCain, except possibly for IA; MT, ID, UT, WY insane for McCain; AZ and one or both of NV and CO for McCain; and the western seaboard (WA, OR, CA) plus NM for Obama. Alaska and Hawaii will likely to continue to cancel each other out. There may be a shift or two of some of the smaller states without major effect, but if several states vote differently from currently expected, they could offset Ohio's large number of electoral votes. I don't think that will happen. Ohio seems to be the key.

-- triton --