#67 States in Play

"Candidates' travels show it's all about Ohio" is the headline on Carrie Budoff Brown's Politico online article this evening.

And it's true that both Obama and McCain have spent more time there and in Florida than in any other state. Obama is also visiting Virginia and North Carolina far more frequently than John Kerry did four years ago, as he tries to make inroads into what his campaign clearly believes are vulnerable Red states. My question, rhetorical of course: if he's so concerned about trying to capture Virginia, why didn't he choose as his running mate the senator or the governor? Either Webb or Keane would really have put that state into play.

McCain is spending much time in Michigan and Pennsylvania, as he tries to woo moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs, conservative Republicans in the southwestern part of Pennsylvania, and Democrats disaffected with Governor Granholm's statewide economic problems in Michigan.

Both Obama and McCain seem to think that Iowa will go Blue this year, although McCain has added Iowa to his schedule recently, so he may see something there that the polls have not reflected. I think Obama needs to spend some time there as well, even though right now at least one poll has him with a nine point lead. Obama is also trying to bring New Mexico back to the Blue, and I see him succeeding there. But he has to work hard to keep Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the Democratic column. The polls fluctuate sufficiently in those four states that I don't trust them to reflect true Obama strength.

Obama also has to be careful not to keep neglecting New England (other than New Hampshire, which seems definitely in play). New Englanders are a proud people, and won't look kindly on being ignored, or taken for granted as Obama seems to be doing. Luckily, McCain's not spending much time there either (except for New Hampshire). If Obama doesn't spend some time in the other New England states, I'm concerned about an unpleasant surprise in New England on November 4.

Frankly, I think Obama is wasting his time in Florida. McCain has also spent a lot of time there, and every poll I've seen puts him pretty safely ahead of Obama. Barring something really unforeseen, I don't see that lead changing. Missouri's another state that, I believe, Obama currently has little chance of winning.

McCain probably can't win the election without Ohio, unless he takes both Michigan and Pennsylvania, and maybe Minnesota for good measure. McCain's strong collection of southern states, mountain states, and Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Texas base create a math that indicates that likely Obama can't win without it either.

Finally, then, as I've said before, It's Ohio.

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