##74 The Electoral Math, If Racism Doesn't Exist...Much

Liz Sidoti (AP), CNN and triton seem to be on the same wave length. Here's Sidoti on October 4:

"McCain can't prevail without holding onto most of the states that Bush won, and he's now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — as he tries to fend off Obama's well-funded advertising onslaught and grass-roots efforts.The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine — and he's running behind."

CNN and triton are saying almost the same thing, though I admit surprise that Obama is currently LEADING in several states that were Red for dubya: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. I'm not yet ready to put any of these in Obama's column, since we still have nearly four weeks until the election, and the polls are fluid. Still, I believe Obama will win at least some of them.

Today I'm putting Iowa and Connecticut into Obama's column. The Lieberman Effect, which caused me to classify CT as a Tossup, seems to be absent. Weeks ago I put New Mexico in Obama's column, and he's solidified his lead since then. Indiana is going for McCain, so that's off the table as well.

The only state I've moved from my Tossup list to McCain is Arkansas. The Clintons have all but disappeared from this election: no news, no appearances, no interviews.

The five blue states where McCain is putting his money--Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota--will go for Obama, though McCain could get one vote from Maine, depending on the voting pattern in the state’s four electoral districts. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that allow their electoral votes to be split. And that could, under one particular circumstance (keep reading), be an important single vote. Obama, by the way, will get no electoral votes from Nebraska.

That leaves Ohio, which I have called the key state to this election. Perhaps no longer: so many Red states are now in play that Obama may actually not need to win Ohio to win the election. Ohio is still pretty much a dead heat, though Obama is leading there in four polls and McCain in two.

If Obama wins the states I've listed as his, and wins even only one Tossup state except Nevada, he'll be our next President with more than 270 electoral votes. Nevada's 5 electoral votes will give him 269 votes, and a tie with McCain. In that case, the House of Representatives decides who becomes President, and there's an excellent chance the House will still have a Democratic majority, even more strongly than now.

However, if Obama wins all of the states that I've listed in his column, plus only Nevada from the Tossups, but McCain wins one of Maine's four votes, then Obama will have 268 votes and McCain will have 270 votes. And John McCain will be President.

If, however, Obama wins any one of the other Tossup states instead of Nevada, Barack Obama will be our next President. Right now, late at night, looking at the polls' statistics, I think Obama will win more than one Tossup state, could even win most of them.

Two words of caution: (1) the polls can change radically in 26 days, as they have changed in the last month; (2) I don't know how or even if racism will play a significant role. But if racism does enter significantly, silently or not, Sarah Palin may be too close to the presidency for comfort.

And now the states as I see them lining up:

McCAIN

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3

Currently 22 states with 174 electoral votes for McCain
----- ----- -----

OBAMA

California 55
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Wisconsin 10

Currently 21 states + DC with 264 electoral votes for Obama

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TOSSUP

Colorado 9
Florida 27
Missouri 11
Nevada 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Virginia 13

Currently 7 states with 100 electoral votes are Tossups, most of them with Obama holding a small lead on October 7, 2008.

-- triton --