The new poll numbers are appearing. Right now on average Obama is ahead in states with 313 electoral votes. There are, of course, reasons why those totals can change, with unacknowledged racial bias being the primary one. There's no way we can determine the extent unless folk actually say so, as they've done in Pennsylvania and Ohio recently. McCain is listed as having 135 electoral votes.
Other items--such as an October surprise (international or national crisis in addition to the financial crisis, Cindy McCain personally contributing her fortune to eliminate the credit crisis, and stuff we can't even begin to imagine)--could change the polls quickly, so I'm not assuming anything. But if the election were held right now, we likely would have a new party in the White House.
According to these most recent polls, Ohio is still a tossup (in the polls I've seen, Obama is ahead more often than behind), but even Florida gives Obama a 5 point lead. Nonetheless, right now at least, I expect Florida and Ohio to go Republican.
Obama's ahead in New Hampshire (10 points), West Virginia(by 8 points!?), Nevada (4 points so I haven't even included NV in Obama's total), Colorado (more than 5 points), Minnesota (6 points), Wisconsin (more than 8 points), Virginia (more than 8 points! -- can that be?), Pennsylvania (14 points -- that's Biden's work), and Florida (5 points).
I've already put New Mexico (only 4+ points ahead) and Iowa (13 points ahead) into the Democratic columns.
I'll keep looking but not yet every day.
-- triton --
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