#79 Updated Electoral Vote Guesstimates: 291-174 (73 Tossups)

With the debates over, with John McCain still shifting the tactics of his campaign, and based on today's poll numbers and the momentum that seems to be continuing, today I'm moving Colorado (9), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13) to Barack Obama's column. That's a big move, since all three states went for dubya four years ago and eight years ago. Obama currently leads in the polls by 7 points in Colorado, 5 points in Nevada, and 10 points in Virginia. He has been maintaining these leads pretty consistently recently.

These three states add 27 votes to Obama's previous total of 264, giving him 291 votes -- and the Presidency.

I have added no states to McCain's column; he remains with 22 states and 174 electoral votes.

Obviously the election is not over. These guesstimates are a snapshot in time--today--but I believe that, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would be elected.

West Virginia (5), which had shifted from eight points ahead for McCain in late September to eight points ahead for Obama in mid-October, has shifted back to McCain by two points. North Dakota (3) is now in play, but I suspect it will retreat to McCain by election day. Ohio (20) and Florida (27) are still Tossups and could go either way; for now, however, I'm assuming they'll go Red in November, though I haven't moved them yet into the McCain column. I feel the same way about Missouri (11) and North Carolina (15) going Red, but I'm leaving them in Tossup as well. They still have some slight possibility of going for Obama by November 4. Obviously, if two of more of these states go to Obama, he'll be well over 300 electoral votes and could be approaching landslide proportions.

Even without West Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina, Obama can win with either Colorado or Virginia. Both plus Nevada provides a cushion. And we still have more than two weeks to go.

A major international disruption, a major national gaffe by either side, or a host of any other events could alter the calculus.

Here are my current guesstimated totals. Remember -- You read it here first; if I'm wrong, you don't remember where you read it:

McCAIN
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Dakota 3 – MIGHT BE IN PLAY?
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
West Virginia 5 – MIGHT BE IN PLAY?
Wyoming 3

Currently 22 states with 174 electoral votes for McCain

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OBAMA
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 11
Wisconsin 10

Currently 24 states + DC with 291 electoral votes for Obama

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TOSSUP
Florida 27 THOUGH OBAMA OCCASIONALLY AHEAD, I THINK WILL BE RED
Missouri 11 A SMALL CHANCE TO BE OBAMA’S THOUGH I DON’T THINK SO
North Carolina 15 REALLY A TOSSUP, PROBABLY McCAIN
Ohio 20 REALLY A TOSSUP, BUT I THINK WILL BE McCAIN

Currently 4 states with 73 electoral votes are Tossups.

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