# 85 The Electoral College Math

Yes, it's Math time again, but we're nearing the end of the campaign so I figured it's time to set out clearly what Barack Obama needs to do to win. I'm an Obama supporter (have already voted early for him) so, if you're a John McCain supporter, you can figure what McCain needs to do to win, by just not having Obama do any of the following.

In 2004, dubya won 286 electoral votes; John Kerry won 251 electoral votes. He should have won 252, but one of Minnesota's electors cast one of Kerry's votes for John Edwards. Since I believe Obama will win all of Kerry's states--even though McCain is still working hard in Pennsylvania--let's start with no defections, which means that Obama starts with 252 votes.

Any of the following combinations will win the presidency for Barack Obama:

1. The three western states that I have already put in Obama's column: NV (5), NM (5) and CO (9);

2. or the two very close southern states, one of which, VA (13), I've already put in Obama's column, and the other of which, NC (15) is currently leaning toward Obama;

3. or either one of the two really big Tossup states, OH (20) or FL (27).

Obviously, some mix-and-match combination would also win the election for Obama, and he is currently leading in most polls in six of these seven (FL seems to swing back and forth between Obama and McCain). But, on election night, if OH for example goes to Obama, the election is probably over, in keeping with my September 24 post, "It's Ohio." It doesn't have to be Ohio as the key state, however, since there are these other scenarios for his victory. As I've indicated more recently, Barack Obama could win the presidency without either Ohio or Florida.

I'm assuming no electoral defections and no split votes in Maine or Nebraska. The freak event in Minnesota four years ago is not likely to be repeated this year, unless Obama is so far ahead in electoral votes that a defection of a vote or two somewhere becomes irrelevant.

Obviously, given my previous posts' awarding of four of these states to Obama, I believe he will be elected. But with ten days remaining before election day, anything could still happen.

As always, I welcome your thoughts either as comment on this post or by email.

-- triton --