# 80 Are We Looking at 306 to 232?

Well, as I indicated last time, WV has shifted back to McCain, and now is even more strongly in the Red column. I'm not surprised. I am surprised that Ohio polling has Obama ahead by nine points(!), 51% to 42%. Frankly, I don't believe it.

Florida polling has McCain slightly ahead and, despite Obama's allegedly near-double-digit lead in Ohio, I'm still planning my electoral vote count with McCain winning both of those states. Nothing against Ohioans, "my friends," but I can't imagine the Ohioans who lived there when I was a graduate student at Ohio State (forty years ago, to be sure) voting for a black man. Well, yes, I guess I do feel something against Ohioans, at least those who in one poll last week tacitly admitted they were racist.

I still feel comfortable with my having placed CO, NV, and VA in Obama's column a few days ago. He maintains at least a 4% lead, and actually it's been fluctuating to as high as 10%, in those states.

So with two weeks to go, I still have Obama over 270 electoral votes. The surprise is his strength in what I have considered to be the two other Tossup states, MO and NC. Today's published poll has Obama ahead 49 to 44 in Missouri, and that's Rasmussen, reporting for Fox News, which is usually skewed in favor of McCain. In North Carolina, Obama's ahead 51 to 48. That doesn't leave a lot of Undecideds in that state.

I'm not willing to award either state to Obama, however. They're both within the potential Bradley (or Wilder) Effect, which is as high as 6%. Of course, Obama drew upwards of 100,000 people last week in St. Louis, and McCain drew downward of 2,000 soon thereafter in the same area.

Palin's the one who's drawing for the Republicans, but I'm not sure it's entirely due to her popularity. I think it's more like the crowds that gather around a train wreck, looking to see what damage has been done and what more might be done. In other words, I still think the negativity that has been imposed on Palin's speeches by her handlers has adversely affected the Republican ticket's support.

Right now, then, I still see it as Obama 291 and McCain 174. If I'm correct about OH and FL, and if even MO and NC go Red, it will be Obama 291, McCain 247. More likely, NC may go Blue and MO go Red: Obama 306, McCain 232.

In any case, my standard caveat is still in effect: there's no real way to determine how race will play out in this election. As fewer folk are listed as Undecided, my electoral numbers are based on what I hope is minimal racist influence. But, as they sing in "Porgy and Bess": "It Ain't Necessarily So."

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